Sunday, March 18, 2012

Budget Comedy

Having burnt my fingers in start of the year rally I stopped trading for few days until the budget. I wanted to see how this will shape up.I may be a bear. The reasons are

1. Equity bear because companies are not doing that great, Inflation is up etc
2. Property bear because of seeing filthy rich money RE players are making

From this budget I tried to see the positive sides and was trying to become bull. I tried hard. But it is of no use. I see huge negatives from this budget and I fear Indian Economy will go bust.

1. Income tax benefit for tax payers is restricted to 2000 only. The handful of population who does not vote will get the 20000 additional benefit. But again there is a catch. The 20000 tax free infra bond option is other be benefits.

2. Pranab is trying to change rules on IT due to Vodafone-Hutch ruling. The people who shouted from roof top about the SC ruling is not at all murmuring anything now.

3. Service tax increased to 2% and excise duty increased to 2%. This added huge burden to both aam aadmi as well as affordable. Car prices set to go up.

4. Now Govt will look to increase diesel and petrol and mark my words. It will affect us hugely.

5. Inflation is not gonna to come down as expected. RBI's view will get interesting in the coming months.

Because of the above factors, people may not have disposable income in their hands to spend. Govt expectation of consumer driven economy theory may not work at all.

If not for Obama's election thing, markets would have gone to ditch. Let us wait and watch. Tamasha becomes more interesting now.

Friday, March 2, 2012

ONGC share sale bombed

Government has not learnt its lessons.

Indian government foolishly thinking that the share markets are rising due to improvement in indian economic climate. But the truth is that the global liquidity push is driving Indian markets and this is not going to last. One news item in Times of India says that the government officials advises corporate to lobby for a RBI rate cut.

Instead of going to control the fiscal deficit and reign in regulatory mode, government is thinking everything will be set right automatically. That is not going to happen. Next tamasha will start after the budget.