Friday, April 19, 2013

Uncertainity of markets showing up

Due to gold and oil crash a market cartel is trying to manipulate the equity and currency markets. I guess this is a passing phase and will last for few days.

Mid may and US markets hold the key for Indian markets now.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Mother of all crash will be here soon :)

The property crash is so near.

The gold crash has demonstrated what will happen when unreasonable speculative bubble bursts. The results is all there to see. Gold has easily lost 1/3 of its value in a matter of 1 year. Although personally I believe gold may not fall much from here ( 2300 per gm Indian price), I expect property market to fall like a pack of cards.

Do not underestimate greedy,cunning Indians of today's age. They are not like people 2 decades back. If crash comes, it will be ruthlessly play out as Indians are ready to do anything to make money nowadays. Especially after the new economic policy (wrongly attributed to 'not fit to be clerk' MMS).

In internet age the crash can be huge.

People want to see mangoman posts


Gold  sold off....

next in line is property..the sub standard apartments and deep out of the city plots are in the firing line next...

watch out this space


many banks and NBFC who financed to gold are in firing line too...RBI is breathing in their neck.....

the crude price and gold price down may help Indian government to some extent...but the damage has been done already.....

Sunday, April 14, 2013

Can anybody clarify???

We have been seeing FII money flowing into Indian markets to the tune of billions. ( for the past few days it is moving out, and that is different topic altogether).

My question is, if FII buy stocks (cash market buying) we say that money is entering into India and it is good for Indian economy. I heard we make day to day purchases (oil etc) only with that money nowadays.

I want to know what happens to the money FII's  make by trading in derivatives markets? Because the money the make in derivatives is more than enough to cover their cash market buying for the month, given the way they manipulate the Indian equity markets.

1. How that money is accounted for?
2. If they book the profit and take the money out of India, will it considered as money moving out of India?
3. Is there any control for such money like it should be invested in India again like that?
4. Will that not affect the currency exchange rate?

Friday, April 12, 2013

Weekend musings - mangoman

As we said, markets are in downtrend.

In my opinion, what we have seen is just a trailor and we will see real film very soon. I mean as early as within couple of weeks.

FII's have piled up index futures short and index options put long.

After today's BAD IIP data ( a comedy is positive data is 'positive data' it seems nowadays), the 'ready to sell wife for a rate cut' lobby is active again. RBI is in tremendous pressure as usual.

But now India lost all opportunities and the nature will take it own course.

Sunday, April 7, 2013

A must read - Shankar Sharma of First Global

Last chance to Real Estate speculators to escape

Many guys do not understand the RE cycle and making fun on the people who are bearish on RE sector. The cycle normally lasts for years. As I said elsewhere in the forum, the boom period ends 2 years back and now is ready to fall. 2013-2014 is the year we are going to see huge downside.

Share markets are under tremendous pressure and falling 100 points easily with only 300 crores selling by FII's. That shows the depth and mood of the markets. Imagine if all the ETFs want to go simultaneously. Even a 5000 crore selling casue nifty to nosedive to 4000 levels.

Whatever RE rates are quoted by people now are imaginary rates. Whoeevery buys RE for the past few years are not sitting in profit as per my analysis  ( They buy at 40 Lakh and then think the price is 70 lakh or 80 lakh), we need transactions at the new price to accept.

China is very busy pricking the bubble and their inflation is at moderate level. Still they think their inflation is high. We are busy cutting rates and nobody talks about the need to prick the bubble. Actually this Indian mentality gives me more confidence that the coming bubble burst will be huge.

Corrupt government, corporate mafia, cheater builders and media brokers are in the same page regarding the bubble and recently they have successfully postponed the much awaited (even watered down) RE bill supposed to be passed in parliament.

All 2-tier and 3-tier cities real estate transactions have come to stand still. Now actually I see bulls are desperate unlike we were desperate few months back.

Basically I see RE bulls have exhausted all their options and now with the corrupt government has ran out of options and also counting the days. I don't think RE can be saved.

People who bought house should do fine. But whoever invested hoping for a killing would do good if they escape with whatever profits or minimal loss.

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Stock market going to crash

For the past 2 days I observe FII are selling stocks in cash market. Given the history this seems very unusual. Rumour is that ETF funds started withdrawing from India. I am not surprised. I was waiting for this moment.

Whoever buy Nifty put options ( May or June) will benefit immensely.  Low risk high reward strategy. Easily we may fall by 10% which will be the sentiment breaker of sorts for Indian Economy.

Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Car sales continues to rock :)

Latest good news

1. March car sales tumbling
2. Manufacturing PMI coming down fast
3. Core sector growth goes into negative
4. Air travel is reducing.

All  4 items I mentioned above are, as I said before is symptoms of the start of a terrible down trend. Without any evidence corrupt government officials, corporate mafia and media brokers are talking about bottoming out etc... It is nothing but cheating. We need to see some evidence like higher low etc to talk about bottoming out. 

Media brokers are telling (especially Times of India) that car sales are tumbling because of high interest rates. I have one question for this broker. What was the lowest interest rate offered for car loan in India and when? think about it.

I propose some ideas to government:

1.  Government can go for a house to house survey and if any family without a car is found, they can be forcibly sign for a car loan. If they dont agree, they can be arrested.

2.  The above idea can be tried for 2nd car also. Who cares about traffic? We need to feed the car companies right? Who cares about farmers committing suicide?