Saturday, March 30, 2013

Latest good news - CAD

Another reason for celebration for patriotic Indians. The CAD ( Current Account Deficit) has come at 6.7 which is worse than expected. While this is not unexpected for most of the real economists, economists such as Rangarajan and Montek Singh Ahluwalai have expressed surprise. These so called experts have been predicting bottoming out, peaking out things for the past 2 years without any data to substantiate their theory. Meanwhile situation has become bad to worse.

For the past one month, even FII inflows are reducing. My expectations are ( These can happen and the probability I assign is 60 - 90%

1.  Crude is gonna to go up ( Korea situation escalating which is also evident from chart patterns of crude)
2.  FII outflows will start from Indian markets ( Even reduced inflows will cause mayhem here given the CAD)
3.  Having received a left hook in February, car makers are looking to get right kick for March. This would be jolt for them. No need to talk about April which is traditionally dull month for auto sales.
4. US dollar index is going up which will accelerate nifty fall.

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