Sunday, December 30, 2012

So what can RBI do?

It seems RBI is caught between the devil and the deep sea.

The Financial Stability Report paints a gloomy picture on Indian economy and not without reasons. The most serious of them is the news about the house hold savings stumbled to mere 7.8% last year from almost 13% couple of years ago. This is scary by any standards for any central bank.The very reason India withered away many financial sunamies are only to the high savings rate. In the mad rush to show 9% growth we turned into a consumption economy and traded our benefit of savings economy and thus exposing ourselves to financial crisis.

The banks are not at all in good shape and adding the restructured loans to the bad loans the total bad loans growth is at alarming pace as per RBI's own standards. RBI very will know of the fact that a quarter or half point cut in Repo cannot save the banks.  Any rate reduction from RBI will first be absorbed by the banks before they pass into the consumers and corporates. Most of our corporates forgot to do the business with reasonable margins, so I dont think they will be benefited with these token rate cuts.Now what can happen:

Scenario 1:

The RBI due to their own (overtalking) will be forced to cut interest rates in January 30, and thus putting country into deep financial mess. Remember any rate cut will be used by corporate and realty mafia to induce common people to consume more without any reason and thus avoid any meaningful correction to the overheated economy. So atmost this can be used to postpone the crash for few months. The inflation will not be contained given the fact that the Rupee is fast losing its value.

    **overtalking:  The RBI should have merely said that rate cuts will come once the inflation contains within the comfort levels. Instead of that, RBI has given a hard date thus cave in the pressures of blood sucking corporate mafia and to election minded finance minister

                                                 to be continued

Monday, December 17, 2012

PM woke up

Suddenly manmohan Singh woke up and said inflation is at unacceptable level. I trully amazed at this man's character. Is he really that intelligent as we think?

This has been going on in the country for past few years and it took many years for him to realise this thing. What is the answer he has for the savers who are f***ed by the governement policy of rewarding real estate brokers at the cost of Aam Aadmi?

Is he has any plans to bring the real returns for the common man who puts deposit in banks?

The reason for his sudden realization is this..

 " Now we have reached a situation where the inflation goes up automatically by 10+ percentage whereas the salary/wage hike is not happening in the same pace. Most of the money of Indian Inc is stuck in real estate as all the companies think instead of doing their core business investing in real estate would be a good bet. Now that causes strains in the system and Rupee value nosedives. In spite of record FII share investments in this year Rupee has reached 55 levels. The share of P-Notes also at record levels. Now this is scary situation for the people who know basic economics"

"Import bill is increasing hugely due to gold imports as people lost faith in this bunch of jokers who are mismanaging the country's economy. India has withered some financial sunami's only because our high rate of savings. Now since that is not there jokers are getting jerky"

" Cutting half percentage or even one percentage of interest rates will not revive growth of economy or the consumption boom as these jokers are expecting"

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Why rate cut?

The people of India wants to know why there should be a rate cut from RBI? ( read it as pronounced by Arnab Goswami in Times Now :)

1.Whether the inflation gone down below 3-4% which is the real comfort zone for RBI?
2. Whether the blood sucking corporates/real estate mafia agreed to reduce prices?  Is it anybody's guess when government and RBI is floating such messages as 'cheap money', 'rate cut' how the hell the real estate developer will reduce the prices?  Are we loosing common sense?
3. Where is rupee heading?
4. Where is our export heading?
5. Is there a sign of import reducing?
6. What about our gold imports? Is it not rising only because of our low real interest rates? Is it not cheating on the poor poeple who trust on Indian Banking System?

Govt may have vested Interests, but RBI should not have.

Monday, December 10, 2012

Last flourish

The positive momentum is gonna to go away within few weeks/months.

Whatever said and done, domestic mutual funds withdraw 45k - 50k from Indian stock markets and it is only the FII who are investing. Chidambaram historically believes to measure the economy's growth using nifty levels. So he must be happy.

Yes, we are tired of predicting as the government machinery is fully supporting the unethical business practices, real estate bubble  etc etc. But there is a limit to everything. Whatever you can control within your control you can manage, but India has reached a point where we can no longer stage manage certain things.

1. Real Estate price is not international. It is within India you can manage. You don't want to regulate. You don't want to prick the bubble. Let it be. We will come to this later.

2. Gold price is international. You cannot control. Now shamelessly Government is asking people to stop buying gold and note here it is the only instrument which withstands the government fueled inflation assault. Not only government is asking, even they put pressure on RBI officials to ask people not to buy gold.  Poor RBI fellows!. They forget basic economics and dance to the tune of government.

3. Rupee conversion rate. If huge money is stuck and hoarded in real estate. Every company is investing in real estate where is the real money to do real business? Now, a stage will come where everybody will think it is better to buy some flats and need not do any other business. This has come already. I saw in a kirana shop in addition to prices of dal and oil they have put prices of houses also ! ROFL!. Coming back to the point, the Rupee value nosedived to 55 now. This inspite of artifical euphoria about the 'so called reforms' act of selling money making business to foreigners.

4. The export sector will get a beating only due to inflation effects mark by words. Rupee can easily touch 60 and above. Whatever election games played by Government they cannot control gold price, Currency etc. That will cause doom to this comedy.

5. Reserve bank may cut rates. And I am wondering if the government and RBI is making unnecessary noises about cutting rates ( cheap money) how the hell the inflation will come down? Do we all forgot basic economics?

6. I wonder now every business leader and stock market operator is predicting that the economy is bottoming out. What is the evidence Mr?  It is going down and it is gonna to accelerate  See the IT companies. They have managed their balance sheets for couple of quarters  now they cannot continue that. Some skeletons will tumble out soon. Other industries will follow.

7. If govt stop playing in interest rates, banks also will face the music. There will be times where government will be made to stop playing in interest rates and the time is very near due to Rupee conversion and all.


If US recovers, FII will pull out the money and run out of sinking ship India that will cause a massive crash in indian stock markets.

Wave counts also indicates the top is very near.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Rat is running AROUND naked

Now the CREDAI asked fellow developers to reduce prices and sell off the inventory.

Who enlightened them to reduce prices now? When they say DEMAND raising 30% every year non stop, what is the need for them to reduce the prices?

Questions my request to 'investors' of real estate is  to TO SELL OFF WHATEVER INVESTMENT THEY MADE , IT IS NEAR...LAST WARNING....:)

Saturday, December 1, 2012

comedy by montek singh

Montek singh ahluwalia today says India need high growth to reduce poverty. What a joke?

By raising inflation this man with turban wants to show that people earn more than 22 or 35 Rs which they fix as poverty line. They will conveniently forget what can be bought for 22 or 35 Rs now and then?

This is fraud Mr.

I expect crash is near and the reasons are....

Now the economy is on steroid and most of us are used to easy money. Even with this easy money we see the GDP slowed down to 5.3. The fraudsters who caused havoc with Indian economy are still optimistic and are telling that we have 'bottomed out'.  I think this is cruel joke on Indian economy. Bottoming out means the economy reached a point from where it cannot go further down. We should get signs for economic revival. Yes. The signs of revival are important. Let us see what are the signs our fraudsters are looking at...

1. Indian government passed some 'reforms'. They are nothing but selling/opening up some of the sectors to foreigners. I am not sure how economy will improve if we allow FDI in aviation and retail sales. I think government is hoping to get some foreign exchange in the short term.

2. With all the pep talk about festival sales and all, auto sales raises a mere 10% in november that too because of low base effect by Maruti suzuki figures. We wil see the actual shocking figures of auto sales for December. Except maruti other manufacturers actually reported a decline.

3. I see the GDP figures. There is more scope for fall than raise in each of the individual components. May be mining sector may improve. The realty, finance,construction and capital goods will go much down from here. The amount which get locked in real estate is mind boggling. I don't think mango people like me will go and make real estate purchase now when nobody is sure about the economy direction.

4. Reserve bank may be blackmailed into to reduce the interest rates even though if we see the inflation figures of 7-8 percent in December also. Some bull shit reasoning will come out. I won't be surprised if government rigged the inflation figure. But unfortunately I don't think even a 100 bps rate reduction would help the economy now. But such a reduction will help to maintain the inflation at the elevated levels and it would be suicidal decision from RBI. Let us see. It would be very interesting from now on.

5. The failed monsoon is not fully factored into GDP. we cannot put that under carpet for long.

6. The imminent crash in real estate ( it is started, I heard some people who locked in real estate investments in Hosur absconded) will affect our economy in big way.

7. It will be very interesting to see how our banks are going to handle this. Now I heard that again the liquidity is started affecting banks as the banks started borrowing from RBI heavily.

8. Government and RBI's shameless act of asking people not to buy gold is shocking. When the real rate of return in paper instruments is -ve, what they are expecting people to do? This is a real shocker. To add to that Indian Mango stupid people is perfectly fine with this idiotic statements.

9. Let us see, with Indian main stock baramoter Nifty touching 6000 ( there is a theory), there may be a huge reversal.