Thursday, January 10, 2013

are we there already??

Now the government suddenly woke up and try to make correct noises. After allowing the inflation to run amok through the country for the past 3-4 years, virtually spoiling all the economic parameters government  is now trying to do damage control.

  • up to 20% fare hike in railways.
  • There will be huge hike in diesel ( That is what they say, finally if it comes 2-3 Rupees, we mango people will he happy, they knew that)

Now coming back to our favorite doomsday scenario, I see increasing symptoms for crash now:

1. Car sales growth is down to 2008-2009 level. Since this time, the slowdown is much more broad based I am sure it will go to negative in 2013. Some of the car companies may shut shop and go out from India.

2.  IT companies are not doing any mass campus hiring like previous years and planning to do some   namesake campus hiring only. Pipeline of business is not too great.

3.Since government is trying to augment resources at every level, ( tax hikes are possible) people will not spend much.

4. Real estate brokers ( brokers includes banks) cannot expect robust growth this year. I think 2013 may be the bust year for real estate

5. Stock market is gonna to crash which will bring real estate down with this. This year it would be interesting to see the sellers only market without any buyers both in shares and real estate. Stocks are already showing initial signs of reversal.

6. With Rupee at 55 against USD, if rate cut comes, it is not gonna to do any good to the government or RBI's reputation. Let RBI takes a decision. But for doomsday scenario whether rate cut or not, doomsday is gonna to come

7. With no new job openings, with no new avenues to make money ( we sold all natural resources already), and without any wage hikes how can we float ponzai schemes such as real estate etc?

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