Mango's take on October 29

Raghuram Rajan raised the repo rate and signaled that he wants to attack inflation and he also made right noises about...

1. Inflation
2. Real positive return for savers
3. Importance for CPI

Meanwhile markets liked it, mostly they expected it as the bankers are gushing about the reduction in the MsF. Also the bankers get extra repo windows in 7-day and 14 - day. The FII's who drive indian markets are going to show new high in next few days ( possibly in 2 days)..will this bring retail investors into share market? I hope not.

Also whatever RBI eased is not going to help the corporate mafia and this will surely help banks to window dress their balance sheet for another 1 or 2 quarters. But surely the end game has begin for Indian banks.

Nationalized banks balance sheets are showing the true situation nowadays. Have a look at Syndicate bank and Maharashtra banks results announced in this 2 days....now since 2 banks has come out with ugly results all the bankers who were waiting in the sidelines to declare their results will come out.

these nationalized bank guys were waiting for some banks to declare results so that their number did not look ugly. Interesting.

Now I think with increasing inflation RBI is gonna to raise REPO every month and it is fun time. Meanwhile the much awaiting festival session is failed as per the preliminary news. But the end result has not come yet...

Let us wait.

Open letter to Chidambaram

Dear Mr.Chidambaram,

You have the image of an intellectual in the country. That is true to some extent. But have you ever wondered why still you are not having a decent support base among the masses in your native state. You very well knew that you cannot win any election in Tamil nadu without the support of one of the Dravidian parties. Even with that support, last time you won under dubious circumstances. You know the reason? You may not know...I will tell you...The reason is PEOPLE DO NOT THINK YOU ARE DEPENDABLE, TRUSTWORTHY and unfortunately THEY THINK YOU ARE NOT HONEST. Exactly for that reason, I am quite sure you will lose in the coming elections.

People are not wrong in their assumptions. Your actions seems to be that you are always working for corporates and you know the values of Indian corporates. With cronies they can never survive. Basically we are a country who sell natural resources to foreigners to make a living. Let us see your recent actions

1. When you assumed office last year, you started right on target by saying builders have to reduce prices to keep the economy going. Suddenly you stopped talking about that. After few months you started singing exactly opposite tune by saying people should start buy from these blood sucking builders by 'whatever prices they quote'.  Even though you do not tell this in exact words, you actions of asking banks to bail out the builders is telling exactly that. Why do you want to bail out the builders? Do they deserve it?

2. When countries like china and other ASEAN countries got cheap money due to FED, they built infrastructure, bridges etc. What have we done? We have built apartments that too sub standard ones. Dont you see most of the money we got is converted into illiquid and unproductive apartment complexes.

3. Now you are after the companies and individuals to collect the taxes.  I did not see a co-ordinated effort from the IT department against the builders? Do you know it is impossible to buy an apartment without any black money? Is it not a shame?

4. It shocked the honest people to see that a few handful of individual cases in Bangalore resulted in huge amount of crores of unaccounted money. ( Case of builder - owner agreement).  What about others?

5. When you rob the savers of the country to pay the blood sucking corporates, what is your heart is telling? When you put terrible pressure on reserve bank to cut rates( it is actually doing terrible injustice to the people who live dependent on bank interest) what do you think?

6. Do you think the consumption slowdown we face now is normal? No sir. It is abnormal.






 (Continued)

gonna to celebrate :)

Mr. Chidambaram has exhausted all his options and now has only empty promises to offer in his forthcoming budget.

The signs are peaking and the crash is imminent.

• Banks are bleeding          
• Real estate is struggling
• Job growth is stalling
• Car sales are tumbling
• Rupee is crashing
• Inflation is raising
• Money flow is stalled totally

All the above signs were positive some time back and now not all favorable  These are perfect recipe for disaster. The people who expects Chidambaram to bring some magic miracle solution for all these problems in the budget speech will be in for rude shock.  Indian economy will pay for its master's sins and this will become very ugly.

I suggested all my friends and relatives to liquidate their investments in shares and real estate. I don't know about other investment vehicles. Better be in cash.

The start will be a crash in share market followed by real estate. Then bad news will follow. Banks will start reporting more ugly set of numbers from March 2013.

Subbarao blinked finally - 1

The tug of war between government and RBI ended today as RBI governor D.Subbarao conceded by lowering the Repo rate by 0.25 even CPI is over 10% and WPI is over 7%.   Whether it is pressure, threat, coax, cajol or whatever from Chidambaram, governer obliged with the rate cut and this is not at all good for the common man. Subbarao ditched the common man for real estate mafia.

. Normally with every review RBI used to talk about inflation only. Now they understood this is not only about inflation. The mismanagement started affecting CAD and Rupee value also. One need not to be economist to understand all this basic things. Interestingly they seems to read my blog and wrote something about the fall in the savings rate in India.  RBI included all these things in their review. But instead of raising the interest rates they reduced.

Now let us see what would happen next:

1. As I have been maintaining, the 0.25% is not going to save the ass of corporate mafia. The real estate mafia has to pay for the sins. I do not think any body would go and buy apartments or flats only for 0.25% or 0.50% rate cut. People should have real money or jobs. With new jobs are hard to come by I am not sure.

2. A well known Bangalore builders defaulted in corporate debentures. Hopefully a start is made. I love to see at least 50 medium builders to bankrupt to start with. These idiots are thinking they have land bank which is valued more than the loan amount. .They value all these land banks at CMP at which rate nobody buys :) so I don't believe their price. Let us see how the creditors get back their money.

3. Chidambaram has placed all his cards on the table and forced RBI also to put their best foot forward. Since they cannot do anything more to pep up, I think they will run out of steam.

are we there already??

Now the government suddenly woke up and try to make correct noises. After allowing the inflation to run amok through the country for the past 3-4 years, virtually spoiling all the economic parameters government  is now trying to do damage control.

• up to 20% fare hike in railways.
• There will be huge hike in diesel ( That is what they say, finally if it comes 2-3 Rupees, we mango people will he happy, they knew that)

Now coming back to our favorite doomsday scenario, I see increasing symptoms for crash now:

1. Car sales growth is down to 2008-2009 level. Since this time, the slowdown is much more broad based I am sure it will go to negative in 2013. Some of the car companies may shut shop and go out from India.

2.  IT companies are not doing any mass campus hiring like previous years and planning to do some   namesake campus hiring only. Pipeline of business is not too great.

3.Since government is trying to augment resources at every level, ( tax hikes are possible) people will not spend much.

4. Real estate brokers ( brokers includes banks) cannot expect robust growth this year. I think 2013 may be the bust year for real estate

5. Stock market is gonna to crash which will bring real estate down with this. This year it would be interesting to see the sellers only market without any buyers both in shares and real estate. Stocks are already showing initial signs of reversal.

6. With Rupee at 55 against USD, if rate cut comes, it is not gonna to do any good to the government or RBI's reputation. Let RBI takes a decision. But for doomsday scenario whether rate cut or not, doomsday is gonna to come

7. With no new job openings, with no new avenues to make money ( we sold all natural resources already), and without any wage hikes how can we float ponzai schemes such as real estate etc?

Why rate cut?

The people of India wants to know why there should be a rate cut from RBI? ( read it as pronounced by Arnab Goswami in Times Now :)

1.Whether the inflation gone down below 3-4% which is the real comfort zone for RBI?
2. Whether the blood sucking corporates/real estate mafia agreed to reduce prices?  Is it anybody's guess when government and RBI is floating such messages as 'cheap money', 'rate cut' how the hell the real estate developer will reduce the prices?  Are we loosing common sense?
3. Where is rupee heading?
4. Where is our export heading?
5. Is there a sign of import reducing?
6. What about our gold imports? Is it not rising only because of our low real interest rates? Is it not cheating on the poor poeple who trust on Indian Banking System?

Govt may have vested Interests, but RBI should not have.

Rat is running AROUND naked

Now the CREDAI asked fellow developers to reduce prices and sell off the inventory.

Who enlightened them to reduce prices now? When they say DEMAND raising 30% every year non stop, what is the need for them to reduce the prices?

Questions remain..now my request to 'investors' of real estate is  to TO SELL OFF WHATEVER INVESTMENT THEY MADE , IT IS NEAR...LAST WARNING....:)

Chidambaram puts pressure on banks

New article says Mr.P. Chidambaram finance minister this week asked public sector banks to bail out the real estate sharks. He has crossed all limits of governance and it is very disturbing to see a finance minister who is responsible for all the citizens well being stoop to such level.

The same minister immediately after assuming office in August has asked the PSB's to put pressure on builders to sell the unsold inventory. Now within few months what happened? Mango people naturally will think that some understanding has been reached between developers / builders mafia with the government.

 Without that, how can a foreign educated finance minister who is presumably well aware of the dangerous bubble engulfing the sector can ask the already struggling the government banks to bail out the developers who are the very reason for the impending economic collapse of the country? ( Long sentence ha)

God saves India.