Extension for Subbarao????

some news about extension!!!!
http://www.firstpost.com/economy/no-job-extension-offer-yet-says-rbi-chief-subbarao-972127.html

It is better to go Mr.Subbarao. If you cannot withstand government pressure what is the point in getting extension and staying in the hot seat  only to see the economy collapsing day by day?

If the collapse comes after few months atleast you can say ' it was ok until I was there..now they are not able to save it' . So what say?

Time for Chidambaram to come on TV

Before going to today's bashing, please read the blog post of Mr.Deepak here. According to him, RBI has raised he interest rates.http://capitalmind.in/2013/07/rbi-effectively-hikes-rates-2-sets-limits-on-repo-usage/

But now do you know whether banks are continuously borrowing more than the 75000 Cr set by the RBI? I mean how it will hurt the banks unless otherwise they are having to use MSF on daily basis. What is the daily borrowings whether it is crossing 75000 Crs consistently?

So far these bankers were doing easy money business. Get some cheap money from RBI which is forced by corrupt UPA government and lend them to real estate brokers. When the repayment term comes they replan the loan repayment until idiot mangoman takes these loan as housing loan or whatever bull shit they call us. Those days are easy money are over. Now it is time to Indian bankers to do business as per the book. Identify the business analyse the margin and then lend. Since now most of the Indian business man turned brokers and not ready to accept a margin of anything less than 40% it would be a tough ask. Otherwise what can define that almost all top business house in India dabble in real estate?

Ok. Now what?  Since interest rates are going to go up it would be very interesting. Fraudsters who are ready to sell even their wives for a rate cut are going to get crushed in this financial sunami unless they understand what is real business is.

It is sad that guys like businesses of Ratan Tata who never comes on broker channels to beg for a rate cut, is not doing that good. His tata steel and tata motors are not doing good. I feel for it. But that is what life it.

Another interesting aspect I have observed yesterday wherein WPI inflation figures are released during market hours as it is perceived to be good news for market. Is it not amounting to fraud in government for they said they are going to release all these ( gdp, inflation and iip) after market hours?

Anyway Chidambaram will come on TV and will tell that what RBI has done is just a eye wash or hog wash. It is just a ploy to shore up the currency and bankers need not worry that the government and RBI will find some innovative ways to give money to real estate brokers supported by banks. Am I right?

Down and out.....

Down and out is not referring the rigged up Indian Markets even though Mangoman love to see crash in the Indian markets.

The vegetable prices gone through roof. The budget of ordinary family is affected  http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/vegetables-fruit-burn-a-hole-in-the-pocket-as-prices-go-through-the-roof-113070600586_1.html  . Still government is supporting Real Estate brokers community by not increasing the rates. Sadly they are looking ways to cut rates further. RBI is also singing the tune of government which is very bad for the country.

I remember RBI Guv. Subbarao said he will have to raise rates if Rupee falls further. That was when Rupee was trading at 55-56. After that Rupee has depreciated more than 10%. I am wondering what constitutes a fall in Subbarao's dictionary?  He is one of the biggest disappointment. He should raise to the occasion.

Either way when Monday market opens RBI has a fight in the hand. I love to see Rupee touching new lows that day.  RBI dollars reserves are going down fast as per the latest reports.As I have been maintaining RBI can save face if they do what they have to do on their own instead of being forced by the basic laws of economics.

Monday morning without no doubt chamcha singh ( Montek) will talk about bottoming out. What a cruel guy he is?Most of the vegetables are costing more than 100 Rs per Kg. But when I looked at the inflation barometer our RBI and government follows it says less than 4%. What a cheating?

But with all this, mangoman has to support the Food Security Bill. Yes. For country of this size, subsidies are important and I donot believe in the paid economists ( swaminathan aiyar and other BJP supporting analysts) view about FSB. We have larger issues to address than the subsidy which helps vast majority of the people. Share market is not the only place where people invest. Less than 1 or 2 percent invested in Share markets. If India pricks the Real Estate bubble it will help many crores of people to come out of the clutches of Inflation. But BJP is careful about not talking about that. Why there was no agitation planned by BJP about Real Estate Lobby? why no agitation about inflation? So opposing FSB is not something Mangoman will support.But Mangoman also wants congress to lose badly in the coming election.

Rupee nosedived / Desperate RBI continue supporting Real Estate Brokers

Rupee crashed to all time low of 60.72 at the end of the day today.  Patriotic Indians should celebrate the moment as both Government and RBI are busy screwing up the economy day by day. Instead of saving the Rupee the RBI is increasing the provision limit for housing loans and also allowing real estate brokers to mobilize money from foreign countries.

I see the act of RBI from 2 perspectives.

1. RBI is desperate and being pushed by FM, so giving generous freebies to RE brokers.

2. To get in the foreign exchange, RBI is opening the RE sector, so that brokers can mobilize funds from foreign countries as other businesses in India lost the ability to do business within reasonable margins. Real estate brokers being brokers in India, think that they can continue doing business at current 60-80% margin even by mobilizing money from foreign countries. In a way I am happy as this may be the final nail in the coffin.

Meanwhile markets continue to crash. Nifty crashing below 5600. Let us wait and see the nifty below 5000 within couple of months.

Dear Mr.Subbarao

I know this week is very taxing for you.I know you are coaxed, cajoled, blackmailed,praised, pressurized for a rate cut this week. Come Monday afternoon you will be relieved for another month or so.

Whatever happens you will be remembered as a weak RBI governor who could not control inflation and who could not revive growth and who could not stop Rupee from falling.

You are good but easily bulldozzed by blood sucking corporates, corrupt government and pimp media.

I feel sorry for you.

Can anybody clarify???

We have been seeing FII money flowing into Indian markets to the tune of billions. ( for the past few days it is moving out, and that is different topic altogether).

My question is, if FII buy stocks (cash market buying) we say that money is entering into India and it is good for Indian economy. I heard we make day to day purchases (oil etc) only with that money nowadays.

I want to know what happens to the money FII's  make by trading in derivatives markets? Because the money the make in derivatives is more than enough to cover their cash market buying for the month, given the way they manipulate the Indian equity markets.

1. How that money is accounted for?
2. If they book the profit and take the money out of India, will it considered as money moving out of India?
3. Is there any control for such money like it should be invested in India again like that?
4. Will that not affect the currency exchange rate?

Weekend musings - mangoman

As we said, markets are in downtrend.

In my opinion, what we have seen is just a trailor and we will see real film very soon. I mean as early as within couple of weeks.

FII's have piled up index futures short and index options put long.

After today's BAD IIP data ( a comedy is positive data is 'positive data' it seems nowadays), the 'ready to sell wife for a rate cut' lobby is active again. RBI is in tremendous pressure as usual.

But now India lost all opportunities and the nature will take it own course.

Last chance to Real Estate speculators to escape

Many guys do not understand the RE cycle and making fun on the people who are bearish on RE sector. The cycle normally lasts for years. As I said elsewhere in the forum, the boom period ends 2 years back and now is ready to fall. 2013-2014 is the year we are going to see huge downside.

Share markets are under tremendous pressure and falling 100 points easily with only 300 crores selling by FII's. That shows the depth and mood of the markets. Imagine if all the ETFs want to go simultaneously. Even a 5000 crore selling casue nifty to nosedive to 4000 levels.

Whatever RE rates are quoted by people now are imaginary rates. Whoeevery buys RE for the past few years are not sitting in profit as per my analysis  ( They buy at 40 Lakh and then think the price is 70 lakh or 80 lakh), we need transactions at the new price to accept.

China is very busy pricking the bubble and their inflation is at moderate level. Still they think their inflation is high. We are busy cutting rates and nobody talks about the need to prick the bubble. Actually this Indian mentality gives me more confidence that the coming bubble burst will be huge.

Corrupt government, corporate mafia, cheater builders and media brokers are in the same page regarding the bubble and recently they have successfully postponed the much awaited (even watered down) RE bill supposed to be passed in parliament.

All 2-tier and 3-tier cities real estate transactions have come to stand still. Now actually I see bulls are desperate unlike we were desperate few months back.

Basically I see RE bulls have exhausted all their options and now with the corrupt government has ran out of options and also counting the days. I don't think RE can be saved.

People who bought house should do fine. But whoever invested hoping for a killing would do good if they escape with whatever profits or minimal loss.

Stock market going to crash

For the past 2 days I observe FII are selling stocks in cash market. Given the history this seems very unusual. Rumour is that ETF funds started withdrawing from India. I am not surprised. I was waiting for this moment.

Whoever buy Nifty put options ( May or June) will benefit immensely.  Low risk high reward strategy. Easily we may fall by 10% which will be the sentiment breaker of sorts for Indian Economy.

Latest good news - CAD

Another reason for celebration for patriotic Indians. The CAD ( Current Account Deficit) has come at 6.7 which is worse than expected. While this is not unexpected for most of the real economists, economists such as Rangarajan and Montek Singh Ahluwalai have expressed surprise. These so called experts have been predicting bottoming out, peaking out things for the past 2 years without any data to substantiate their theory. Meanwhile situation has become bad to worse.

For the past one month, even FII inflows are reducing. My expectations are ( These can happen and the probability I assign is 60 - 90%

1.  Crude is gonna to go up ( Korea situation escalating which is also evident from chart patterns of crude)
2.  FII outflows will start from Indian markets ( Even reduced inflows will cause mayhem here given the CAD)
3.  Having received a left hook in February, car makers are looking to get right kick for March. This would be jolt for them. No need to talk about April which is traditionally dull month for auto sales.
4. US dollar index is going up which will accelerate nifty fall.

Monetary Review 2017 and more.....

These are the probable scene which will be witnessed in 2017 Monetary Review

RBI has reduced the CRR further and the CRR now stands at -3%. That means  RBI will give an extra  3% of the banks total deposits to all the banks to overcome the liquidity issue.

SBI chairman Pramod Chapri so upset about RBI with the minus 3%  CRR. He argues RBI should give unlimited money to the banks without any interest cost and the CRR itself is a  idiotic banking practice followed centuries ago.

Repo Rate is reduced further and now stands at -4%. This means mango men ( You and me) have to pay 4% interest to keep your money in the bank deposit.

FICCI President Podi Godrej reportedly unhappy with RBI, that the repo rate is reduced only up to 4%. He wondered how industry will grow if the repo rate is -4. He wanted RBI to reduce the rates further.

Karthi Chidambaram ( he would become finance minister by then) expects RBI governor Ramarao to act responsibly to reduce rates further to -10%, so that poor Kumbani's and Jehindra's can eat atleast a square meal per day.

In a separate news, the CPI inflation touches 23% and the WPI inflation is at 12%. Taking note on this inflation figure PMEAC chairman sundarrajan says the WPI decreases by 0.00002% which actually gives room to RBI to cut the rates further. Further he noted that the price of jet engine reduces by 100%, which is what we need to look as a sign of cooling inflation.

Planning commission deputy Chamcha singh puts blame of rural people. He says rural people has become more arrogant these days and started eating decent food for 3 times per day which puts more pressure on the inflation. He also expressed dismay about the fact that poor people started drinking coffee everyday. He also says government is taking effective steps to arrest this trend.

Meanwhile real estate continues to thrive and the price of a single bedroom flat is 10 crore even though 100000 crores of apartments still vacant in the country.

Car Sales Busssssshhhhhhh!!!!!

The car sales figure for February 2013 comes in and it gives joy to all the patriotic Indians. The car sales plummeted to a 25% fall compared with last year. As usual 'ready to sell wife for a rate cut' gang started talking about rate cut and these idiots are talking about our economy being bottoming out. I want to ask these idiots one simple question...If the economy is already bottomed out, why the hell you are shamelessly begging for a rate cut from RBI, when the common man is suffering from Inflation?

I know, they cannot answer it.

Get ready for rocky times in share market.

Get ready for bad news on real estate front.

The bitter medicine is being shoved into the throat of government. They have to gulp it now. Spitting out is not an option.

Start music.

Budget flaps

People who follow Indian economy closely would vouch that the budget announced by Chidambaram is hopeless. But one should understand he also cannot do anything more. The damage is done already.

He knew Real Estate is the root cause but his hands are tied as many of his colleagues and many corporates and even big banks are in neck deep shit. Now a catastrophe cannot be avoided. I feel sorry for the country but it is necessary. Think of it like a surgery.Markets understood it and promptly tanked. Next in line to get its ass whipped is Real Estate. I would like to see some banks and real estate sharks collapse soon.

Enough about my emotions. Let us analyse the budget.

1. His only aim was to show the fiscal deficit number to 4.8% to avoid the rating downgrade. He has done it. But how?  He has under provided some subsidy numbers in Oil.  But I also agree, if crude falls he will be saved. But do you think oil prices will fall?  I am  not sure. US will not allow the prices to fall because they found huge oil reserves in their country and the middle east countries also a cartel. So I am not sure crude will come down and save Mr. P. Chidambaram.

2.  It seems he has under provided for fertilizer subsidy also.

3. He has assumed huge income from divestment. This may not work out as stock market sentiment is not going to be that good to sell the shares.

4. Spectrum price assumptions also will go wrong as our corporates dont want to pay more money to spectrum.

5. He assumed robust tax income ( both direct and indirect) for next year to bridge the gaps. Unfortunately our growth nosedived from past few months and remember the Q3 of current month GDP is just 4.5. Just extrapolate and I will not be surprised to see sub 3% growth for next year.  Trust me. This will happen. Car sales nosedived. You will not believe the real estate figures if they originally report the figures. Any country which only focus on saving real estate brokers ass is doomed to fall.

To understand the above points, we need not have studied in Harvard. We know the knowledge / intelligent level of harvard educated guys already :)

Some analysts praised his budget only because he did not announce any social welfare schemes. But that is not enough.

I am not only complaining. I have the solution. It is a bitter medicine. Eat on your own. At least you will satisfy your ego. If you are force feed, you will look like an idiot in world arena. But sadly that is what going to happen.

Comedy by Deepak Parekh

Just like the comedy episodes by Godrej, now Deepak also trying his hand. Remember this dude is the chairman of world's most valued bank. This bank is one of the 'so called banks' which sucks the ordinary tax payers money by getting funds at cheap cost due to governments policies. We will talk his credentials later.

For the week he was seen telling ' If India is downgraded, the western economies should be downgraded by several notches'

We will think about this little more:

1. First it is school boy mentality by Deepak asking to look others problems and not looking into your own problems
2. Current account deficit and fiscal deficit is growing alarmingly. So we have a problem. There is a saying ' see your back before commenting others'
3. Inflation has gone out of control partly because of the guys like Deepak who time and again come on broker channels to talk about the need to 'reducing rate'. Tomorrow if we go down, the same wolves will tell RBI could have done a better job.
4. Western economy problem is very different from India because of our population
5. Crony capitalism which benefits the corporate like Deepak is not in western countries.

Any takers??

Why rate cut?

The people of India wants to know why there should be a rate cut from RBI? ( read it as pronounced by Arnab Goswami in Times Now :)

1.Whether the inflation gone down below 3-4% which is the real comfort zone for RBI?
2. Whether the blood sucking corporates/real estate mafia agreed to reduce prices?  Is it anybody's guess when government and RBI is floating such messages as 'cheap money', 'rate cut' how the hell the real estate developer will reduce the prices?  Are we loosing common sense?
3. Where is rupee heading?
4. Where is our export heading?
5. Is there a sign of import reducing?
6. What about our gold imports? Is it not rising only because of our low real interest rates? Is it not cheating on the poor poeple who trust on Indian Banking System?

Govt may have vested Interests, but RBI should not have.

Last flourish

The positive momentum is gonna to go away within few weeks/months.

Whatever said and done, domestic mutual funds withdraw 45k - 50k from Indian stock markets and it is only the FII who are investing. Chidambaram historically believes to measure the economy's growth using nifty levels. So he must be happy.

Yes, we are tired of predicting as the government machinery is fully supporting the unethical business practices, real estate bubble  etc etc. But there is a limit to everything. Whatever you can control within your control you can manage, but India has reached a point where we can no longer stage manage certain things.

1. Real Estate price is not international. It is within India you can manage. You don't want to regulate. You don't want to prick the bubble. Let it be. We will come to this later.

2. Gold price is international. You cannot control. Now shamelessly Government is asking people to stop buying gold and note here it is the only instrument which withstands the government fueled inflation assault. Not only government is asking, even they put pressure on RBI officials to ask people not to buy gold.  Poor RBI fellows!. They forget basic economics and dance to the tune of government.

3. Rupee conversion rate. If huge money is stuck and hoarded in real estate. Every company is investing in real estate where is the real money to do real business? Now, a stage will come where everybody will think it is better to buy some flats and need not do any other business. This has come already. I saw in a kirana shop in addition to prices of dal and oil they have put prices of houses also ! ROFL!. Coming back to the point, the Rupee value nosedived to 55 now. This inspite of artifical euphoria about the 'so called reforms' act of selling money making business to foreigners.

4. The export sector will get a beating only due to inflation effects mark by words. Rupee can easily touch 60 and above. Whatever election games played by Government they cannot control gold price, Currency etc. That will cause doom to this comedy.

5. Reserve bank may cut rates. And I am wondering if the government and RBI is making unnecessary noises about cutting rates ( cheap money) how the hell the inflation will come down? Do we all forgot basic economics?

6. I wonder now every business leader and stock market operator is predicting that the economy is bottoming out. What is the evidence Mr?  It is going down and it is gonna to accelerate  See the IT companies. They have managed their balance sheets for couple of quarters  now they cannot continue that. Some skeletons will tumble out soon. Other industries will follow.

7. If govt stop playing in interest rates, banks also will face the music. There will be times where government will be made to stop playing in interest rates and the time is very near due to Rupee conversion and all.

Conclusion
********

If US recovers, FII will pull out the money and run out of sinking ship India that will cause a massive crash in indian stock markets.

Wave counts also indicates the top is very near.

I expect crash is near and the reasons are....

Now the economy is on steroid and most of us are used to easy money. Even with this easy money we see the GDP slowed down to 5.3. The fraudsters who caused havoc with Indian economy are still optimistic and are telling that we have 'bottomed out'.  I think this is cruel joke on Indian economy. Bottoming out means the economy reached a point from where it cannot go further down. We should get signs for economic revival. Yes. The signs of revival are important. Let us see what are the signs our fraudsters are looking at...

1. Indian government passed some 'reforms'. They are nothing but selling/opening up some of the sectors to foreigners. I am not sure how economy will improve if we allow FDI in aviation and retail sales. I think government is hoping to get some foreign exchange in the short term.

2. With all the pep talk about festival sales and all, auto sales raises a mere 10% in november that too because of low base effect by Maruti suzuki figures. We wil see the actual shocking figures of auto sales for December. Except maruti other manufacturers actually reported a decline.

3. I see the GDP figures. There is more scope for fall than raise in each of the individual components. May be mining sector may improve. The realty, finance,construction and capital goods will go much down from here. The amount which get locked in real estate is mind boggling. I don't think mango people like me will go and make real estate purchase now when nobody is sure about the economy direction.

4. Reserve bank may be blackmailed into to reduce the interest rates even though if we see the inflation figures of 7-8 percent in December also. Some bull shit reasoning will come out. I won't be surprised if government rigged the inflation figure. But unfortunately I don't think even a 100 bps rate reduction would help the economy now. But such a reduction will help to maintain the inflation at the elevated levels and it would be suicidal decision from RBI. Let us see. It would be very interesting from now on.

5. The failed monsoon is not fully factored into GDP. we cannot put that under carpet for long.

6. The imminent crash in real estate ( it is started, I heard some people who locked in real estate investments in Hosur absconded) will affect our economy in big way.

7. It will be very interesting to see how our banks are going to handle this. Now I heard that again the liquidity is started affecting banks as the banks started borrowing from RBI heavily.

8. Government and RBI's shameless act of asking people not to buy gold is shocking. When the real rate of return in paper instruments is -ve, what they are expecting people to do? This is a real shocker. To add to that Indian Mango stupid people is perfectly fine with this idiotic statements.

9. Let us see, with Indian main stock baramoter Nifty touching 6000 ( there is a theory), there may be a huge reversal.

Chidambaram puts pressure on banks

New article says Mr.P. Chidambaram finance minister this week asked public sector banks to bail out the real estate sharks. He has crossed all limits of governance and it is very disturbing to see a finance minister who is responsible for all the citizens well being stoop to such level.

The same minister immediately after assuming office in August has asked the PSB's to put pressure on builders to sell the unsold inventory. Now within few months what happened? Mango people naturally will think that some understanding has been reached between developers / builders mafia with the government.

 Without that, how can a foreign educated finance minister who is presumably well aware of the dangerous bubble engulfing the sector can ask the already struggling the government banks to bail out the developers who are the very reason for the impending economic collapse of the country? ( Long sentence ha)

God saves India.

2G Auction Comedy

 Chidambaram gamble backfired. They played with DMK and thought it is a win win for congress in 2G. Now they got egg on their face. our corporate earnings are big joke. IIP is comedy nobody with right mind believes. l All stock analysts are acting as if they are bullish because they have vested interest in keeping the stock markets up. We in for a great slowdown which will last for few years. That is how the nature pays back the blood sucking corporates, real estate sharks and politicians.... our corporate earnings bank earnings are nothing short of satyam style accounting. The worst is yet to come... C. Rangarajan and Montek singh ahluwalia are predicting inflation to come down `next month` for the past few years..... one wonders are they really that `educated` ? Do they deserve that respect they are given? god knows the answer.. w we all know Chidambaram and his plan. ..he wanted to keep the liquidity and inflation high until 2014 election.... god saves the country