For the past 2 days I observe FII are selling stocks in cash market. Given the history this seems very unusual. Rumour is that ETF funds started withdrawing from India. I am not surprised. I was waiting for this moment.
Whoever buy Nifty put options ( May or June) will benefit immensely. Low risk high reward strategy. Easily we may fall by 10% which will be the sentiment breaker of sorts for Indian Economy.
Showing posts with label trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trading. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Saturday, March 16, 2013
Monetary Review 2017 and more.....
These are the probable scene which will be witnessed in 2017 Monetary Review
RBI has reduced the CRR further and the CRR now stands at -3%. That means RBI will give an extra 3% of the banks total deposits to all the banks to overcome the liquidity issue.
SBI chairman Pramod Chapri so upset about RBI with the minus 3% CRR. He argues RBI should give unlimited money to the banks without any interest cost and the CRR itself is a idiotic banking practice followed centuries ago.
Repo Rate is reduced further and now stands at -4%. This means mango men ( You and me) have to pay 4% interest to keep your money in the bank deposit.
FICCI President Podi Godrej reportedly unhappy with RBI, that the repo rate is reduced only up to 4%. He wondered how industry will grow if the repo rate is -4. He wanted RBI to reduce the rates further.
Karthi Chidambaram ( he would become finance minister by then) expects RBI governor Ramarao to act responsibly to reduce rates further to -10%, so that poor Kumbani's and Jehindra's can eat atleast a square meal per day.
In a separate news, the CPI inflation touches 23% and the WPI inflation is at 12%. Taking note on this inflation figure PMEAC chairman sundarrajan says the WPI decreases by 0.00002% which actually gives room to RBI to cut the rates further. Further he noted that the price of jet engine reduces by 100%, which is what we need to look as a sign of cooling inflation.
Planning commission deputy Chamcha singh puts blame of rural people. He says rural people has become more arrogant these days and started eating decent food for 3 times per day which puts more pressure on the inflation. He also expressed dismay about the fact that poor people started drinking coffee everyday. He also says government is taking effective steps to arrest this trend.
Meanwhile real estate continues to thrive and the price of a single bedroom flat is 10 crore even though 100000 crores of apartments still vacant in the country.
RBI has reduced the CRR further and the CRR now stands at -3%. That means RBI will give an extra 3% of the banks total deposits to all the banks to overcome the liquidity issue.
SBI chairman Pramod Chapri so upset about RBI with the minus 3% CRR. He argues RBI should give unlimited money to the banks without any interest cost and the CRR itself is a idiotic banking practice followed centuries ago.
Repo Rate is reduced further and now stands at -4%. This means mango men ( You and me) have to pay 4% interest to keep your money in the bank deposit.
FICCI President Podi Godrej reportedly unhappy with RBI, that the repo rate is reduced only up to 4%. He wondered how industry will grow if the repo rate is -4. He wanted RBI to reduce the rates further.
Karthi Chidambaram ( he would become finance minister by then) expects RBI governor Ramarao to act responsibly to reduce rates further to -10%, so that poor Kumbani's and Jehindra's can eat atleast a square meal per day.
In a separate news, the CPI inflation touches 23% and the WPI inflation is at 12%. Taking note on this inflation figure PMEAC chairman sundarrajan says the WPI decreases by 0.00002% which actually gives room to RBI to cut the rates further. Further he noted that the price of jet engine reduces by 100%, which is what we need to look as a sign of cooling inflation.
Planning commission deputy Chamcha singh puts blame of rural people. He says rural people has become more arrogant these days and started eating decent food for 3 times per day which puts more pressure on the inflation. He also expressed dismay about the fact that poor people started drinking coffee everyday. He also says government is taking effective steps to arrest this trend.
Meanwhile real estate continues to thrive and the price of a single bedroom flat is 10 crore even though 100000 crores of apartments still vacant in the country.
Sunday, March 3, 2013
Budget flaps
People who follow Indian economy closely would vouch that the budget announced by Chidambaram is hopeless. But one should understand he also cannot do anything more. The damage is done already.
He knew Real Estate is the root cause but his hands are tied as many of his colleagues and many corporates and even big banks are in neck deep shit. Now a catastrophe cannot be avoided. I feel sorry for the country but it is necessary. Think of it like a surgery.Markets understood it and promptly tanked. Next in line to get its ass whipped is Real Estate. I would like to see some banks and real estate sharks collapse soon.
Enough about my emotions. Let us analyse the budget.
1. His only aim was to show the fiscal deficit number to 4.8% to avoid the rating downgrade. He has done it. But how? He has under provided some subsidy numbers in Oil. But I also agree, if crude falls he will be saved. But do you think oil prices will fall? I am not sure. US will not allow the prices to fall because they found huge oil reserves in their country and the middle east countries also a cartel. So I am not sure crude will come down and save Mr. P. Chidambaram.
2. It seems he has under provided for fertilizer subsidy also.
3. He has assumed huge income from divestment. This may not work out as stock market sentiment is not going to be that good to sell the shares.
4. Spectrum price assumptions also will go wrong as our corporates dont want to pay more money to spectrum.
5. He assumed robust tax income ( both direct and indirect) for next year to bridge the gaps. Unfortunately our growth nosedived from past few months and remember the Q3 of current month GDP is just 4.5. Just extrapolate and I will not be surprised to see sub 3% growth for next year. Trust me. This will happen. Car sales nosedived. You will not believe the real estate figures if they originally report the figures. Any country which only focus on saving real estate brokers ass is doomed to fall.
To understand the above points, we need not have studied in Harvard. We know the knowledge / intelligent level of harvard educated guys already :)
Some analysts praised his budget only because he did not announce any social welfare schemes. But that is not enough.
I am not only complaining. I have the solution. It is a bitter medicine. Eat on your own. At least you will satisfy your ego. If you are force feed, you will look like an idiot in world arena. But sadly that is what going to happen.
He knew Real Estate is the root cause but his hands are tied as many of his colleagues and many corporates and even big banks are in neck deep shit. Now a catastrophe cannot be avoided. I feel sorry for the country but it is necessary. Think of it like a surgery.Markets understood it and promptly tanked. Next in line to get its ass whipped is Real Estate. I would like to see some banks and real estate sharks collapse soon.
Enough about my emotions. Let us analyse the budget.
1. His only aim was to show the fiscal deficit number to 4.8% to avoid the rating downgrade. He has done it. But how? He has under provided some subsidy numbers in Oil. But I also agree, if crude falls he will be saved. But do you think oil prices will fall? I am not sure. US will not allow the prices to fall because they found huge oil reserves in their country and the middle east countries also a cartel. So I am not sure crude will come down and save Mr. P. Chidambaram.
2. It seems he has under provided for fertilizer subsidy also.
3. He has assumed huge income from divestment. This may not work out as stock market sentiment is not going to be that good to sell the shares.
4. Spectrum price assumptions also will go wrong as our corporates dont want to pay more money to spectrum.
5. He assumed robust tax income ( both direct and indirect) for next year to bridge the gaps. Unfortunately our growth nosedived from past few months and remember the Q3 of current month GDP is just 4.5. Just extrapolate and I will not be surprised to see sub 3% growth for next year. Trust me. This will happen. Car sales nosedived. You will not believe the real estate figures if they originally report the figures. Any country which only focus on saving real estate brokers ass is doomed to fall.
To understand the above points, we need not have studied in Harvard. We know the knowledge / intelligent level of harvard educated guys already :)
Some analysts praised his budget only because he did not announce any social welfare schemes. But that is not enough.
I am not only complaining. I have the solution. It is a bitter medicine. Eat on your own. At least you will satisfy your ego. If you are force feed, you will look like an idiot in world arena. But sadly that is what going to happen.
Sunday, January 6, 2013
Comedy by Deepak Parekh
Just like the comedy episodes by Godrej, now Deepak also trying his hand. Remember this dude is the chairman of world's most valued bank. This bank is one of the 'so called banks' which sucks the ordinary tax payers money by getting funds at cheap cost due to governments policies. We will talk his credentials later.
For the week he was seen telling ' If India is downgraded, the western economies should be downgraded by several notches'
We will think about this little more:
1. First it is school boy mentality by Deepak asking to look others problems and not looking into your own problems
2. Current account deficit and fiscal deficit is growing alarmingly. So we have a problem. There is a saying ' see your back before commenting others'
3. Inflation has gone out of control partly because of the guys like Deepak who time and again come on broker channels to talk about the need to 'reducing rate'. Tomorrow if we go down, the same wolves will tell RBI could have done a better job.
4. Western economy problem is very different from India because of our population
5. Crony capitalism which benefits the corporate like Deepak is not in western countries.
Any takers??
For the week he was seen telling ' If India is downgraded, the western economies should be downgraded by several notches'
We will think about this little more:
1. First it is school boy mentality by Deepak asking to look others problems and not looking into your own problems
2. Current account deficit and fiscal deficit is growing alarmingly. So we have a problem. There is a saying ' see your back before commenting others'
3. Inflation has gone out of control partly because of the guys like Deepak who time and again come on broker channels to talk about the need to 'reducing rate'. Tomorrow if we go down, the same wolves will tell RBI could have done a better job.
4. Western economy problem is very different from India because of our population
5. Crony capitalism which benefits the corporate like Deepak is not in western countries.
Any takers??
Monday, December 10, 2012
Last flourish
The positive momentum is gonna to go away within few weeks/months.
Whatever said and done, domestic mutual funds withdraw 45k - 50k from Indian stock markets and it is only the FII who are investing. Chidambaram historically believes to measure the economy's growth using nifty levels. So he must be happy.
Yes, we are tired of predicting as the government machinery is fully supporting the unethical business practices, real estate bubble etc etc. But there is a limit to everything. Whatever you can control within your control you can manage, but India has reached a point where we can no longer stage manage certain things.
1. Real Estate price is not international. It is within India you can manage. You don't want to regulate. You don't want to prick the bubble. Let it be. We will come to this later.
2. Gold price is international. You cannot control. Now shamelessly Government is asking people to stop buying gold and note here it is the only instrument which withstands the government fueled inflation assault. Not only government is asking, even they put pressure on RBI officials to ask people not to buy gold. Poor RBI fellows!. They forget basic economics and dance to the tune of government.
3. Rupee conversion rate. If huge money is stuck and hoarded in real estate. Every company is investing in real estate where is the real money to do real business? Now, a stage will come where everybody will think it is better to buy some flats and need not do any other business. This has come already. I saw in a kirana shop in addition to prices of dal and oil they have put prices of houses also ! ROFL!. Coming back to the point, the Rupee value nosedived to 55 now. This inspite of artifical euphoria about the 'so called reforms' act of selling money making business to foreigners.
4. The export sector will get a beating only due to inflation effects mark by words. Rupee can easily touch 60 and above. Whatever election games played by Government they cannot control gold price, Currency etc. That will cause doom to this comedy.
5. Reserve bank may cut rates. And I am wondering if the government and RBI is making unnecessary noises about cutting rates ( cheap money) how the hell the inflation will come down? Do we all forgot basic economics?
6. I wonder now every business leader and stock market operator is predicting that the economy is bottoming out. What is the evidence Mr? It is going down and it is gonna to accelerate See the IT companies. They have managed their balance sheets for couple of quarters now they cannot continue that. Some skeletons will tumble out soon. Other industries will follow.
7. If govt stop playing in interest rates, banks also will face the music. There will be times where government will be made to stop playing in interest rates and the time is very near due to Rupee conversion and all.
Conclusion
********
If US recovers, FII will pull out the money and run out of sinking ship India that will cause a massive crash in indian stock markets.
Wave counts also indicates the top is very near.
Whatever said and done, domestic mutual funds withdraw 45k - 50k from Indian stock markets and it is only the FII who are investing. Chidambaram historically believes to measure the economy's growth using nifty levels. So he must be happy.
Yes, we are tired of predicting as the government machinery is fully supporting the unethical business practices, real estate bubble etc etc. But there is a limit to everything. Whatever you can control within your control you can manage, but India has reached a point where we can no longer stage manage certain things.
1. Real Estate price is not international. It is within India you can manage. You don't want to regulate. You don't want to prick the bubble. Let it be. We will come to this later.
2. Gold price is international. You cannot control. Now shamelessly Government is asking people to stop buying gold and note here it is the only instrument which withstands the government fueled inflation assault. Not only government is asking, even they put pressure on RBI officials to ask people not to buy gold. Poor RBI fellows!. They forget basic economics and dance to the tune of government.
3. Rupee conversion rate. If huge money is stuck and hoarded in real estate. Every company is investing in real estate where is the real money to do real business? Now, a stage will come where everybody will think it is better to buy some flats and need not do any other business. This has come already. I saw in a kirana shop in addition to prices of dal and oil they have put prices of houses also ! ROFL!. Coming back to the point, the Rupee value nosedived to 55 now. This inspite of artifical euphoria about the 'so called reforms' act of selling money making business to foreigners.
4. The export sector will get a beating only due to inflation effects mark by words. Rupee can easily touch 60 and above. Whatever election games played by Government they cannot control gold price, Currency etc. That will cause doom to this comedy.
5. Reserve bank may cut rates. And I am wondering if the government and RBI is making unnecessary noises about cutting rates ( cheap money) how the hell the inflation will come down? Do we all forgot basic economics?
6. I wonder now every business leader and stock market operator is predicting that the economy is bottoming out. What is the evidence Mr? It is going down and it is gonna to accelerate See the IT companies. They have managed their balance sheets for couple of quarters now they cannot continue that. Some skeletons will tumble out soon. Other industries will follow.
7. If govt stop playing in interest rates, banks also will face the music. There will be times where government will be made to stop playing in interest rates and the time is very near due to Rupee conversion and all.
Conclusion
********
If US recovers, FII will pull out the money and run out of sinking ship India that will cause a massive crash in indian stock markets.
Wave counts also indicates the top is very near.
Sunday, December 11, 2011
Great Blogs to follow
www.tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.com
The above mentioned blog has a very interesting and effective technique wherein the trend of the market is identified by some magic formula. It is rumoured that many guys made huge just by following this blog mechanically.
This blog follow the combination of EW analysis and moving averages.
The above mentioned blog has a very interesting and effective technique wherein the trend of the market is identified by some magic formula. It is rumoured that many guys made huge just by following this blog mechanically.
This blog follow the combination of EW analysis and moving averages.
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