Mango's take on October 29

Raghuram Rajan raised the repo rate and signaled that he wants to attack inflation and he also made right noises about...

1. Inflation
2. Real positive return for savers
3. Importance for CPI

Meanwhile markets liked it, mostly they expected it as the bankers are gushing about the reduction in the MsF. Also the bankers get extra repo windows in 7-day and 14 - day. The FII's who drive indian markets are going to show new high in next few days ( possibly in 2 days)..will this bring retail investors into share market? I hope not.

Also whatever RBI eased is not going to help the corporate mafia and this will surely help banks to window dress their balance sheet for another 1 or 2 quarters. But surely the end game has begin for Indian banks.

Nationalized banks balance sheets are showing the true situation nowadays. Have a look at Syndicate bank and Maharashtra banks results announced in this 2 days....now since 2 banks has come out with ugly results all the bankers who were waiting in the sidelines to declare their results will come out.

these nationalized bank guys were waiting for some banks to declare results so that their number did not look ugly. Interesting.

Now I think with increasing inflation RBI is gonna to raise REPO every month and it is fun time. Meanwhile the much awaiting festival session is failed as per the preliminary news. But the end result has not come yet...

Let us wait.

Time for Chidambaram to come on TV

Before going to today's bashing, please read the blog post of Mr.Deepak here. According to him, RBI has raised he interest rates.http://capitalmind.in/2013/07/rbi-effectively-hikes-rates-2-sets-limits-on-repo-usage/

But now do you know whether banks are continuously borrowing more than the 75000 Cr set by the RBI? I mean how it will hurt the banks unless otherwise they are having to use MSF on daily basis. What is the daily borrowings whether it is crossing 75000 Crs consistently?

So far these bankers were doing easy money business. Get some cheap money from RBI which is forced by corrupt UPA government and lend them to real estate brokers. When the repayment term comes they replan the loan repayment until idiot mangoman takes these loan as housing loan or whatever bull shit they call us. Those days are easy money are over. Now it is time to Indian bankers to do business as per the book. Identify the business analyse the margin and then lend. Since now most of the Indian business man turned brokers and not ready to accept a margin of anything less than 40% it would be a tough ask. Otherwise what can define that almost all top business house in India dabble in real estate?

Ok. Now what?  Since interest rates are going to go up it would be very interesting. Fraudsters who are ready to sell even their wives for a rate cut are going to get crushed in this financial sunami unless they understand what is real business is.

It is sad that guys like businesses of Ratan Tata who never comes on broker channels to beg for a rate cut, is not doing that good. His tata steel and tata motors are not doing good. I feel for it. But that is what life it.

Another interesting aspect I have observed yesterday wherein WPI inflation figures are released during market hours as it is perceived to be good news for market. Is it not amounting to fraud in government for they said they are going to release all these ( gdp, inflation and iip) after market hours?

Anyway Chidambaram will come on TV and will tell that what RBI has done is just a eye wash or hog wash. It is just a ploy to shore up the currency and bankers need not worry that the government and RBI will find some innovative ways to give money to real estate brokers supported by banks. Am I right?

Down and out.....

Down and out is not referring the rigged up Indian Markets even though Mangoman love to see crash in the Indian markets.

The vegetable prices gone through roof. The budget of ordinary family is affected  http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/vegetables-fruit-burn-a-hole-in-the-pocket-as-prices-go-through-the-roof-113070600586_1.html  . Still government is supporting Real Estate brokers community by not increasing the rates. Sadly they are looking ways to cut rates further. RBI is also singing the tune of government which is very bad for the country.

I remember RBI Guv. Subbarao said he will have to raise rates if Rupee falls further. That was when Rupee was trading at 55-56. After that Rupee has depreciated more than 10%. I am wondering what constitutes a fall in Subbarao's dictionary?  He is one of the biggest disappointment. He should raise to the occasion.

Either way when Monday market opens RBI has a fight in the hand. I love to see Rupee touching new lows that day.  RBI dollars reserves are going down fast as per the latest reports.As I have been maintaining RBI can save face if they do what they have to do on their own instead of being forced by the basic laws of economics.

Monday morning without no doubt chamcha singh ( Montek) will talk about bottoming out. What a cruel guy he is?Most of the vegetables are costing more than 100 Rs per Kg. But when I looked at the inflation barometer our RBI and government follows it says less than 4%. What a cheating?

But with all this, mangoman has to support the Food Security Bill. Yes. For country of this size, subsidies are important and I donot believe in the paid economists ( swaminathan aiyar and other BJP supporting analysts) view about FSB. We have larger issues to address than the subsidy which helps vast majority of the people. Share market is not the only place where people invest. Less than 1 or 2 percent invested in Share markets. If India pricks the Real Estate bubble it will help many crores of people to come out of the clutches of Inflation. But BJP is careful about not talking about that. Why there was no agitation planned by BJP about Real Estate Lobby? why no agitation about inflation? So opposing FSB is not something Mangoman will support.But Mangoman also wants congress to lose badly in the coming election.

Better late than never

Finance Minister at it again. He intimidated RBI to cut rates by telling that 'RBI should understand their mandate in the broader sense'. What a irresponsible statement this has been from the Finance Minister of a country which is struggling to avoid a financial sunami of unimaginable proportions.

Please also read this....https://www.niticentral.com/2013/07/01/manmohan-singh-is-an-economic-disaster-in-charge-of-mounting-crisis-97761.html

Shamelessly the UPA government is trying to buy time until the elections by threatening ( almost) RBI to cut the rates. RBI is obliging so far. That is altogether another issue.

I was shocked to read that we continue to pay huge to our oil imports. Even though they oil commodity prices cooled off. An article in DNA says  http://www.dnaindia.com/money/1855943/report-5-years-after-peak-145-oil-india-pays-more-today Rupee has depreciated more than 51% than the time when oil was trading at 145 per barrel. That means we may more than what we were paying to oil few years back.

But strangely we attack gold. That is soft target and inspite of clearly knowing that people buy gold to hedge against killer inflation which caused by RBI and Government, these so called intelligents blaming people.  The opposition is not raising any issue over this gross mis management of economy which baffles me.

Better late than never. A life of few real estate agents is not important than a country. We have a raise interest rates by atleast 2 percentage and depreciate Rupee atleast upto 70 per dollar. Unless we do this, we all will go to dust.

If we dont do it on our own we will be forced to take these measures anyway.

Titbits:

2500 crores recovered in mumbai most probably belongs to some powerful person and it is anybody's guess we will never come to know who is behind this? This case will be closed in due course and we mango idiots will shamelessly live in this country......

Rupee nosedived / Desperate RBI continue supporting Real Estate Brokers

Rupee crashed to all time low of 60.72 at the end of the day today.  Patriotic Indians should celebrate the moment as both Government and RBI are busy screwing up the economy day by day. Instead of saving the Rupee the RBI is increasing the provision limit for housing loans and also allowing real estate brokers to mobilize money from foreign countries.

I see the act of RBI from 2 perspectives.

1. RBI is desperate and being pushed by FM, so giving generous freebies to RE brokers.

2. To get in the foreign exchange, RBI is opening the RE sector, so that brokers can mobilize funds from foreign countries as other businesses in India lost the ability to do business within reasonable margins. Real estate brokers being brokers in India, think that they can continue doing business at current 60-80% margin even by mobilizing money from foreign countries. In a way I am happy as this may be the final nail in the coffin.

Meanwhile markets continue to crash. Nifty crashing below 5600. Let us wait and see the nifty below 5000 within couple of months.

Market is not panicking...Financial ministry is......

Rupee has nosedived into 58.15 levels during close today.

I was so so happy to see the Rupee tumbling. In a way I feel sad for wanting our Rupee to crash. But on the other hand, given the idiotic way this country is being run, I would really like to have some sort of catastrophe so that people understand the ground reality the mend their ways.

Inspite of all this one broker media has come up with a paid article and still the stupids want rate cut from RBI.  Poor RBI. They are caught between the devil and the deep sea.Now RBI with its dwindling dollar reserves bite the bullet? I presume not. But strange are the ways Indian system works. RBI may be forced into act against its wish.

Actually devil inside me tells that RBI should cut the rates so that the inflation flares up again and I wish the crisis should accelerate further so that downgrade comes from ratings agency.

Let us see what happens next..

I think in the immediate future ( 1 -3 days) RBI will come up some desperate measures to stem the fall. But having exhausted all its options it would be interesting to see what RBI will do.

Funnily finance secretary said that market panic is not warranted. As I see market is not panicked but government is. Government it seems runs to RBI and last heard there was hectic discussions. RBI is being cajoled into to do some nasty act. I know anyways desperate times needs desperate measures.

But the real estate economy for the real estate people by the real estate people is doomed to fail

Weekend musings - mangoman

As we said, markets are in downtrend.

In my opinion, what we have seen is just a trailor and we will see real film very soon. I mean as early as within couple of weeks.

FII's have piled up index futures short and index options put long.

After today's BAD IIP data ( a comedy is positive data is 'positive data' it seems nowadays), the 'ready to sell wife for a rate cut' lobby is active again. RBI is in tremendous pressure as usual.

But now India lost all opportunities and the nature will take it own course.

Stock market going to crash

For the past 2 days I observe FII are selling stocks in cash market. Given the history this seems very unusual. Rumour is that ETF funds started withdrawing from India. I am not surprised. I was waiting for this moment.

Whoever buy Nifty put options ( May or June) will benefit immensely.  Low risk high reward strategy. Easily we may fall by 10% which will be the sentiment breaker of sorts for Indian Economy.

Open letter to Chidambaram

Dear Mr.Chidambaram,

You have the image of an intellectual in the country. That is true to some extent. But have you ever wondered why still you are not having a decent support base among the masses in your native state. You very well knew that you cannot win any election in Tamil nadu without the support of one of the Dravidian parties. Even with that support, last time you won under dubious circumstances. You know the reason? You may not know...I will tell you...The reason is PEOPLE DO NOT THINK YOU ARE DEPENDABLE, TRUSTWORTHY and unfortunately THEY THINK YOU ARE NOT HONEST. Exactly for that reason, I am quite sure you will lose in the coming elections.

People are not wrong in their assumptions. Your actions seems to be that you are always working for corporates and you know the values of Indian corporates. With cronies they can never survive. Basically we are a country who sell natural resources to foreigners to make a living. Let us see your recent actions

1. When you assumed office last year, you started right on target by saying builders have to reduce prices to keep the economy going. Suddenly you stopped talking about that. After few months you started singing exactly opposite tune by saying people should start buy from these blood sucking builders by 'whatever prices they quote'.  Even though you do not tell this in exact words, you actions of asking banks to bail out the builders is telling exactly that. Why do you want to bail out the builders? Do they deserve it?

2. When countries like china and other ASEAN countries got cheap money due to FED, they built infrastructure, bridges etc. What have we done? We have built apartments that too sub standard ones. Dont you see most of the money we got is converted into illiquid and unproductive apartment complexes.

3. Now you are after the companies and individuals to collect the taxes.  I did not see a co-ordinated effort from the IT department against the builders? Do you know it is impossible to buy an apartment without any black money? Is it not a shame?

4. It shocked the honest people to see that a few handful of individual cases in Bangalore resulted in huge amount of crores of unaccounted money. ( Case of builder - owner agreement).  What about others?

5. When you rob the savers of the country to pay the blood sucking corporates, what is your heart is telling? When you put terrible pressure on reserve bank to cut rates( it is actually doing terrible injustice to the people who live dependent on bank interest) what do you think?

6. Do you think the consumption slowdown we face now is normal? No sir. It is abnormal.






 (Continued)

gonna to celebrate :)

Mr. Chidambaram has exhausted all his options and now has only empty promises to offer in his forthcoming budget.

The signs are peaking and the crash is imminent.

• Banks are bleeding          
• Real estate is struggling
• Job growth is stalling
• Car sales are tumbling
• Rupee is crashing
• Inflation is raising
• Money flow is stalled totally

All the above signs were positive some time back and now not all favorable  These are perfect recipe for disaster. The people who expects Chidambaram to bring some magic miracle solution for all these problems in the budget speech will be in for rude shock.  Indian economy will pay for its master's sins and this will become very ugly.

I suggested all my friends and relatives to liquidate their investments in shares and real estate. I don't know about other investment vehicles. Better be in cash.

The start will be a crash in share market followed by real estate. Then bad news will follow. Banks will start reporting more ugly set of numbers from March 2013.

What a joke !!!!

It turns out Mr.Subbarao and others in RBI are not that clever as we think.

Yesterday they sent a circular to banks not to lend to gold and the reason given was is that it seems that gold is used for speculative purposes. One could not control laughing hearing this comedy statement.

If RBI is really interested in controlling speculative money, it should bark elsewhere. Yes. you got it right. Real estate is the speculation which causes our economy to nosedive. RBI did not have the courage to take on the mighty.

RBI is probably worrying about the effect it would have on state run banks and others. But the truth is truth. We have to stand by that.

Mr.Subbarao , the open norm in any real estate investment is 30% of black money and further due to our 'so called monetary loose tightening; already real interest rates are in negative. Instead of globally controlled gold rates why not you try to control the speculation in real estate? My mango mind says that is easy and that is really needed.

Desperate times needs desperate measures

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/news-/builders-find-ways-to-stay-afloat-hold-on-to-property-rates/articleshow/11680915.cms

Read the above link. The RE mafia is luring cash rich investors and thus staying afloat weathering the slump in the sales. Behind the lines, we need to understand that  they are expecting end users (like you and me) to blink first and fall into their trap. They are holding steady and slightly having upper hand at this moment. The forces working in their favour are

1. Indian Government and their corrupt politicians
2. RBI ( It is trapped into it unknowingly or knowingly)
3. People who already invested in RE ( They are sentiment creators)
4. Share Market ( Sentiment Creator)

But even the mighty federal reserve could not stop the slump in their real estate. We need to wait and watch when the law of natural correction sets in. So far the indications are negative. The indications in our favour is

1. Food Inflation which nosedives showing signs of going up ( ask the vegetable vendor)
2. Many banks started showing negative returns this quarter ( read financial results)
3. Equity markets are at resistance zone
4. News flow from Europe dried down
5. Indian fiscal deficit is at record heights and babus cannot look other side. This budget would be a great disappointment.

Crash is near. Hold on . sit tight.

I knew this would happen - time to rejoice

http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report_mumbai-developers-run-for-cover-cut-property-prices_1624999

It seems somebody is screwed up in Mumbai.  Time to celebrate.

I sincerely hope it spreads like a wild fire in India.