Saturday, December 1, 2012

I expect crash is near and the reasons are....

Now the economy is on steroid and most of us are used to easy money. Even with this easy money we see the GDP slowed down to 5.3. The fraudsters who caused havoc with Indian economy are still optimistic and are telling that we have 'bottomed out'.  I think this is cruel joke on Indian economy. Bottoming out means the economy reached a point from where it cannot go further down. We should get signs for economic revival. Yes. The signs of revival are important. Let us see what are the signs our fraudsters are looking at...

1. Indian government passed some 'reforms'. They are nothing but selling/opening up some of the sectors to foreigners. I am not sure how economy will improve if we allow FDI in aviation and retail sales. I think government is hoping to get some foreign exchange in the short term.

2. With all the pep talk about festival sales and all, auto sales raises a mere 10% in november that too because of low base effect by Maruti suzuki figures. We wil see the actual shocking figures of auto sales for December. Except maruti other manufacturers actually reported a decline.

3. I see the GDP figures. There is more scope for fall than raise in each of the individual components. May be mining sector may improve. The realty, finance,construction and capital goods will go much down from here. The amount which get locked in real estate is mind boggling. I don't think mango people like me will go and make real estate purchase now when nobody is sure about the economy direction.

4. Reserve bank may be blackmailed into to reduce the interest rates even though if we see the inflation figures of 7-8 percent in December also. Some bull shit reasoning will come out. I won't be surprised if government rigged the inflation figure. But unfortunately I don't think even a 100 bps rate reduction would help the economy now. But such a reduction will help to maintain the inflation at the elevated levels and it would be suicidal decision from RBI. Let us see. It would be very interesting from now on.

5. The failed monsoon is not fully factored into GDP. we cannot put that under carpet for long.

6. The imminent crash in real estate ( it is started, I heard some people who locked in real estate investments in Hosur absconded) will affect our economy in big way.

7. It will be very interesting to see how our banks are going to handle this. Now I heard that again the liquidity is started affecting banks as the banks started borrowing from RBI heavily.

8. Government and RBI's shameless act of asking people not to buy gold is shocking. When the real rate of return in paper instruments is -ve, what they are expecting people to do? This is a real shocker. To add to that Indian Mango stupid people is perfectly fine with this idiotic statements.

9. Let us see, with Indian main stock baramoter Nifty touching 6000 ( there is a theory), there may be a huge reversal.

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