It seems RBI is caught between the devil and the deep sea.
The Financial Stability Report paints a gloomy picture on Indian economy and not without reasons. The most serious of them is the news about the house hold savings stumbled to mere 7.8% last year from almost 13% couple of years ago. This is scary by any standards for any central bank.The very reason India withered away many financial sunamies are only to the high savings rate. In the mad rush to show 9% growth we turned into a consumption economy and traded our benefit of savings economy and thus exposing ourselves to financial crisis.
The banks are not at all in good shape and adding the restructured loans to the bad loans the total bad loans growth is at alarming pace as per RBI's own standards. RBI very will know of the fact that a quarter or half point cut in Repo cannot save the banks. Any rate reduction from RBI will first be absorbed by the banks before they pass into the consumers and corporates. Most of our corporates forgot to do the business with reasonable margins, so I dont think they will be benefited with these token rate cuts.Now what can happen:
Scenario 1:
The RBI due to their own (overtalking) will be forced to cut interest rates in January 30, and thus putting country into deep financial mess. Remember any rate cut will be used by corporate and realty mafia to induce common people to consume more without any reason and thus avoid any meaningful correction to the overheated economy. So atmost this can be used to postpone the crash for few months. The inflation will not be contained given the fact that the Rupee is fast losing its value.
**overtalking: The RBI should have merely said that rate cuts will come once the inflation contains within the comfort levels. Instead of that, RBI has given a hard date thus cave in the pressures of blood sucking corporate mafia and to election minded finance minister
to be continued
Sunday, December 30, 2012
Monday, December 17, 2012
PM woke up
Suddenly manmohan Singh woke up and said inflation is at unacceptable level. I trully amazed at this man's character. Is he really that intelligent as we think?
This has been going on in the country for past few years and it took many years for him to realise this thing. What is the answer he has for the savers who are f***ed by the governement policy of rewarding real estate brokers at the cost of Aam Aadmi?
Is he has any plans to bring the real returns for the common man who puts deposit in banks?
The reason for his sudden realization is this..
" Now we have reached a situation where the inflation goes up automatically by 10+ percentage whereas the salary/wage hike is not happening in the same pace. Most of the money of Indian Inc is stuck in real estate as all the companies think instead of doing their core business investing in real estate would be a good bet. Now that causes strains in the system and Rupee value nosedives. In spite of record FII share investments in this year Rupee has reached 55 levels. The share of P-Notes also at record levels. Now this is scary situation for the people who know basic economics"
"Import bill is increasing hugely due to gold imports as people lost faith in this bunch of jokers who are mismanaging the country's economy. India has withered some financial sunami's only because our high rate of savings. Now since that is not there jokers are getting jerky"
" Cutting half percentage or even one percentage of interest rates will not revive growth of economy or the consumption boom as these jokers are expecting"
This has been going on in the country for past few years and it took many years for him to realise this thing. What is the answer he has for the savers who are f***ed by the governement policy of rewarding real estate brokers at the cost of Aam Aadmi?
Is he has any plans to bring the real returns for the common man who puts deposit in banks?
The reason for his sudden realization is this..
" Now we have reached a situation where the inflation goes up automatically by 10+ percentage whereas the salary/wage hike is not happening in the same pace. Most of the money of Indian Inc is stuck in real estate as all the companies think instead of doing their core business investing in real estate would be a good bet. Now that causes strains in the system and Rupee value nosedives. In spite of record FII share investments in this year Rupee has reached 55 levels. The share of P-Notes also at record levels. Now this is scary situation for the people who know basic economics"
"Import bill is increasing hugely due to gold imports as people lost faith in this bunch of jokers who are mismanaging the country's economy. India has withered some financial sunami's only because our high rate of savings. Now since that is not there jokers are getting jerky"
" Cutting half percentage or even one percentage of interest rates will not revive growth of economy or the consumption boom as these jokers are expecting"
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Why rate cut?
The people of India wants to know why there should be a rate cut from RBI? ( read it as pronounced by Arnab Goswami in Times Now :)
1.Whether the inflation gone down below 3-4% which is the real comfort zone for RBI?
2. Whether the blood sucking corporates/real estate mafia agreed to reduce prices? Is it anybody's guess when government and RBI is floating such messages as 'cheap money', 'rate cut' how the hell the real estate developer will reduce the prices? Are we loosing common sense?
3. Where is rupee heading?
4. Where is our export heading?
5. Is there a sign of import reducing?
6. What about our gold imports? Is it not rising only because of our low real interest rates? Is it not cheating on the poor poeple who trust on Indian Banking System?
Govt may have vested Interests, but RBI should not have.
1.Whether the inflation gone down below 3-4% which is the real comfort zone for RBI?
2. Whether the blood sucking corporates/real estate mafia agreed to reduce prices? Is it anybody's guess when government and RBI is floating such messages as 'cheap money', 'rate cut' how the hell the real estate developer will reduce the prices? Are we loosing common sense?
3. Where is rupee heading?
4. Where is our export heading?
5. Is there a sign of import reducing?
6. What about our gold imports? Is it not rising only because of our low real interest rates? Is it not cheating on the poor poeple who trust on Indian Banking System?
Govt may have vested Interests, but RBI should not have.
Monday, December 10, 2012
Last flourish
The positive momentum is gonna to go away within few weeks/months.
Whatever said and done, domestic mutual funds withdraw 45k - 50k from Indian stock markets and it is only the FII who are investing. Chidambaram historically believes to measure the economy's growth using nifty levels. So he must be happy.
Yes, we are tired of predicting as the government machinery is fully supporting the unethical business practices, real estate bubble etc etc. But there is a limit to everything. Whatever you can control within your control you can manage, but India has reached a point where we can no longer stage manage certain things.
1. Real Estate price is not international. It is within India you can manage. You don't want to regulate. You don't want to prick the bubble. Let it be. We will come to this later.
2. Gold price is international. You cannot control. Now shamelessly Government is asking people to stop buying gold and note here it is the only instrument which withstands the government fueled inflation assault. Not only government is asking, even they put pressure on RBI officials to ask people not to buy gold. Poor RBI fellows!. They forget basic economics and dance to the tune of government.
3. Rupee conversion rate. If huge money is stuck and hoarded in real estate. Every company is investing in real estate where is the real money to do real business? Now, a stage will come where everybody will think it is better to buy some flats and need not do any other business. This has come already. I saw in a kirana shop in addition to prices of dal and oil they have put prices of houses also ! ROFL!. Coming back to the point, the Rupee value nosedived to 55 now. This inspite of artifical euphoria about the 'so called reforms' act of selling money making business to foreigners.
4. The export sector will get a beating only due to inflation effects mark by words. Rupee can easily touch 60 and above. Whatever election games played by Government they cannot control gold price, Currency etc. That will cause doom to this comedy.
5. Reserve bank may cut rates. And I am wondering if the government and RBI is making unnecessary noises about cutting rates ( cheap money) how the hell the inflation will come down? Do we all forgot basic economics?
6. I wonder now every business leader and stock market operator is predicting that the economy is bottoming out. What is the evidence Mr? It is going down and it is gonna to accelerate See the IT companies. They have managed their balance sheets for couple of quarters now they cannot continue that. Some skeletons will tumble out soon. Other industries will follow.
7. If govt stop playing in interest rates, banks also will face the music. There will be times where government will be made to stop playing in interest rates and the time is very near due to Rupee conversion and all.
Conclusion
********
If US recovers, FII will pull out the money and run out of sinking ship India that will cause a massive crash in indian stock markets.
Wave counts also indicates the top is very near.
Whatever said and done, domestic mutual funds withdraw 45k - 50k from Indian stock markets and it is only the FII who are investing. Chidambaram historically believes to measure the economy's growth using nifty levels. So he must be happy.
Yes, we are tired of predicting as the government machinery is fully supporting the unethical business practices, real estate bubble etc etc. But there is a limit to everything. Whatever you can control within your control you can manage, but India has reached a point where we can no longer stage manage certain things.
1. Real Estate price is not international. It is within India you can manage. You don't want to regulate. You don't want to prick the bubble. Let it be. We will come to this later.
2. Gold price is international. You cannot control. Now shamelessly Government is asking people to stop buying gold and note here it is the only instrument which withstands the government fueled inflation assault. Not only government is asking, even they put pressure on RBI officials to ask people not to buy gold. Poor RBI fellows!. They forget basic economics and dance to the tune of government.
3. Rupee conversion rate. If huge money is stuck and hoarded in real estate. Every company is investing in real estate where is the real money to do real business? Now, a stage will come where everybody will think it is better to buy some flats and need not do any other business. This has come already. I saw in a kirana shop in addition to prices of dal and oil they have put prices of houses also ! ROFL!. Coming back to the point, the Rupee value nosedived to 55 now. This inspite of artifical euphoria about the 'so called reforms' act of selling money making business to foreigners.
4. The export sector will get a beating only due to inflation effects mark by words. Rupee can easily touch 60 and above. Whatever election games played by Government they cannot control gold price, Currency etc. That will cause doom to this comedy.
5. Reserve bank may cut rates. And I am wondering if the government and RBI is making unnecessary noises about cutting rates ( cheap money) how the hell the inflation will come down? Do we all forgot basic economics?
6. I wonder now every business leader and stock market operator is predicting that the economy is bottoming out. What is the evidence Mr? It is going down and it is gonna to accelerate See the IT companies. They have managed their balance sheets for couple of quarters now they cannot continue that. Some skeletons will tumble out soon. Other industries will follow.
7. If govt stop playing in interest rates, banks also will face the music. There will be times where government will be made to stop playing in interest rates and the time is very near due to Rupee conversion and all.
Conclusion
********
If US recovers, FII will pull out the money and run out of sinking ship India that will cause a massive crash in indian stock markets.
Wave counts also indicates the top is very near.
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
Rat is running AROUND naked
Now the CREDAI asked fellow developers to reduce prices and sell off the inventory.
Who enlightened them to reduce prices now? When they say DEMAND raising 30% every year non stop, what is the need for them to reduce the prices?
Questions remain..now my request to 'investors' of real estate is to TO SELL OFF WHATEVER INVESTMENT THEY MADE , IT IS NEAR...LAST WARNING....:)
Who enlightened them to reduce prices now? When they say DEMAND raising 30% every year non stop, what is the need for them to reduce the prices?
Questions remain..now my request to 'investors' of real estate is to TO SELL OFF WHATEVER INVESTMENT THEY MADE , IT IS NEAR...LAST WARNING....:)
Saturday, December 1, 2012
comedy by montek singh
Montek singh ahluwalia today says India need high growth to reduce poverty. What a joke?
By raising inflation this man with turban wants to show that people earn more than 22 or 35 Rs which they fix as poverty line. They will conveniently forget what can be bought for 22 or 35 Rs now and then?
This is fraud Mr.
By raising inflation this man with turban wants to show that people earn more than 22 or 35 Rs which they fix as poverty line. They will conveniently forget what can be bought for 22 or 35 Rs now and then?
This is fraud Mr.
I expect crash is near and the reasons are....
Now the economy is on steroid and most of us are used to easy money. Even with this easy money we see the GDP slowed down to 5.3. The fraudsters who caused havoc with Indian economy are still optimistic and are telling that we have 'bottomed out'. I think this is cruel joke on Indian economy. Bottoming out means the economy reached a point from where it cannot go further down. We should get signs for economic revival. Yes. The signs of revival are important. Let us see what are the signs our fraudsters are looking at...
1. Indian government passed some 'reforms'. They are nothing but selling/opening up some of the sectors to foreigners. I am not sure how economy will improve if we allow FDI in aviation and retail sales. I think government is hoping to get some foreign exchange in the short term.
2. With all the pep talk about festival sales and all, auto sales raises a mere 10% in november that too because of low base effect by Maruti suzuki figures. We wil see the actual shocking figures of auto sales for December. Except maruti other manufacturers actually reported a decline.
3. I see the GDP figures. There is more scope for fall than raise in each of the individual components. May be mining sector may improve. The realty, finance,construction and capital goods will go much down from here. The amount which get locked in real estate is mind boggling. I don't think mango people like me will go and make real estate purchase now when nobody is sure about the economy direction.
4. Reserve bank may be blackmailed into to reduce the interest rates even though if we see the inflation figures of 7-8 percent in December also. Some bull shit reasoning will come out. I won't be surprised if government rigged the inflation figure. But unfortunately I don't think even a 100 bps rate reduction would help the economy now. But such a reduction will help to maintain the inflation at the elevated levels and it would be suicidal decision from RBI. Let us see. It would be very interesting from now on.
5. The failed monsoon is not fully factored into GDP. we cannot put that under carpet for long.
6. The imminent crash in real estate ( it is started, I heard some people who locked in real estate investments in Hosur absconded) will affect our economy in big way.
7. It will be very interesting to see how our banks are going to handle this. Now I heard that again the liquidity is started affecting banks as the banks started borrowing from RBI heavily.
8. Government and RBI's shameless act of asking people not to buy gold is shocking. When the real rate of return in paper instruments is -ve, what they are expecting people to do? This is a real shocker. To add to that Indian Mango stupid people is perfectly fine with this idiotic statements.
9. Let us see, with Indian main stock baramoter Nifty touching 6000 ( there is a theory), there may be a huge reversal.
1. Indian government passed some 'reforms'. They are nothing but selling/opening up some of the sectors to foreigners. I am not sure how economy will improve if we allow FDI in aviation and retail sales. I think government is hoping to get some foreign exchange in the short term.
2. With all the pep talk about festival sales and all, auto sales raises a mere 10% in november that too because of low base effect by Maruti suzuki figures. We wil see the actual shocking figures of auto sales for December. Except maruti other manufacturers actually reported a decline.
3. I see the GDP figures. There is more scope for fall than raise in each of the individual components. May be mining sector may improve. The realty, finance,construction and capital goods will go much down from here. The amount which get locked in real estate is mind boggling. I don't think mango people like me will go and make real estate purchase now when nobody is sure about the economy direction.
4. Reserve bank may be blackmailed into to reduce the interest rates even though if we see the inflation figures of 7-8 percent in December also. Some bull shit reasoning will come out. I won't be surprised if government rigged the inflation figure. But unfortunately I don't think even a 100 bps rate reduction would help the economy now. But such a reduction will help to maintain the inflation at the elevated levels and it would be suicidal decision from RBI. Let us see. It would be very interesting from now on.
5. The failed monsoon is not fully factored into GDP. we cannot put that under carpet for long.
6. The imminent crash in real estate ( it is started, I heard some people who locked in real estate investments in Hosur absconded) will affect our economy in big way.
7. It will be very interesting to see how our banks are going to handle this. Now I heard that again the liquidity is started affecting banks as the banks started borrowing from RBI heavily.
8. Government and RBI's shameless act of asking people not to buy gold is shocking. When the real rate of return in paper instruments is -ve, what they are expecting people to do? This is a real shocker. To add to that Indian Mango stupid people is perfectly fine with this idiotic statements.
9. Let us see, with Indian main stock baramoter Nifty touching 6000 ( there is a theory), there may be a huge reversal.
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Chidambaram puts pressure on banks
New article says Mr.P. Chidambaram finance minister this week asked public sector banks to bail out the real estate sharks. He has crossed all limits of governance and it is very disturbing to see a finance minister who is responsible for all the citizens well being stoop to such level.
The same minister immediately after assuming office in August has asked the PSB's to put pressure on builders to sell the unsold inventory. Now within few months what happened? Mango people naturally will think that some understanding has been reached between developers / builders mafia with the government.
Without that, how can a foreign educated finance minister who is presumably well aware of the dangerous bubble engulfing the sector can ask the already struggling the government banks to bail out the developers who are the very reason for the impending economic collapse of the country? ( Long sentence ha)
God saves India.
The same minister immediately after assuming office in August has asked the PSB's to put pressure on builders to sell the unsold inventory. Now within few months what happened? Mango people naturally will think that some understanding has been reached between developers / builders mafia with the government.
Without that, how can a foreign educated finance minister who is presumably well aware of the dangerous bubble engulfing the sector can ask the already struggling the government banks to bail out the developers who are the very reason for the impending economic collapse of the country? ( Long sentence ha)
God saves India.
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
What a joke !!!!
It turns out Mr.Subbarao and others in RBI are not that clever as we think.
Yesterday they sent a circular to banks not to lend to gold and the reason given was is that it seems that gold is used for speculative purposes. One could not control laughing hearing this comedy statement.
If RBI is really interested in controlling speculative money, it should bark elsewhere. Yes. you got it right. Real estate is the speculation which causes our economy to nosedive. RBI did not have the courage to take on the mighty.
RBI is probably worrying about the effect it would have on state run banks and others. But the truth is truth. We have to stand by that.
Mr.Subbarao , the open norm in any real estate investment is 30% of black money and further due to our 'so called monetary loose tightening; already real interest rates are in negative. Instead of globally controlled gold rates why not you try to control the speculation in real estate? My mango mind says that is easy and that is really needed.
Yesterday they sent a circular to banks not to lend to gold and the reason given was is that it seems that gold is used for speculative purposes. One could not control laughing hearing this comedy statement.
If RBI is really interested in controlling speculative money, it should bark elsewhere. Yes. you got it right. Real estate is the speculation which causes our economy to nosedive. RBI did not have the courage to take on the mighty.
RBI is probably worrying about the effect it would have on state run banks and others. But the truth is truth. We have to stand by that.
Mr.Subbarao , the open norm in any real estate investment is 30% of black money and further due to our 'so called monetary loose tightening; already real interest rates are in negative. Instead of globally controlled gold rates why not you try to control the speculation in real estate? My mango mind says that is easy and that is really needed.
Sunday, November 18, 2012
Petrol price reduced :)
I suspect a conspiracy here. When the brent crude touches 110 dollars per barrel and the Rupee is trading at 55 Rupees per dollars, do our OMC's really having a leeway to reduce petrol price? Common sense says No. Indian Government business sense says yes....
The plan to show the inflation at much lesser rate than last month to extract a rate cut from RBI. I will not be surprised to see the inflation rate of less than 6% even less than 5% next month which will be used to pressurize Subbarao.
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
2G Auction Comedy
Chidambaram gamble backfired. They played with DMK and thought it is a win win for congress in 2G. Now they got egg on their face. our corporate earnings are big joke. IIP is comedy nobody with right mind believes. l All stock analysts are acting as if they are bullish because they have vested interest in keeping the stock markets up. We in for a great slowdown which will last for few years. That is how the nature pays back the blood sucking corporates, real estate sharks and politicians.... our corporate earnings bank earnings are nothing short of satyam style accounting. The worst is yet to come... C. Rangarajan and Montek singh ahluwalia are predicting inflation to come down `next month` for the past few years..... one wonders are they really that `educated` ? Do they deserve that respect they are given? god knows the answer.. w we all know Chidambaram and his plan. ..he wanted to keep the liquidity and inflation high until 2014 election.... god saves the country
Thursday, November 8, 2012
What a farce?
We all know the open day light robbery which is happening in hospitals which has only increased in the recent past, but we are not talking about this fraud.
The medical expenses are increasing day by day and it is beyond the reach of mangoman these days. Many mangomen are insuring themselves to avoid cost. Now the doctors ( Indians are very innovative and unique) started charging more (mostly unnecessary treatments only to rip him off) for the people who are insured.. Ultimately it iis loss to the insurance companies. Unfortunately the insurance idiots are not realizing that. Now who is going to take this on? Another side effect is, once you get used to high costs they costs will be charged to non-insured also.
On second thoughts, I also cannot say insurance guys are idiots. They will just increase the insurance premium for next year. So ulitmately sufferer is mangaman. That is YOU and ME. A treatment to cataract costs 16K last year is 24 K this year. Imagine the kind of money the hospitals are making.
Long live India. Jai Hind.
The medical expenses are increasing day by day and it is beyond the reach of mangoman these days. Many mangomen are insuring themselves to avoid cost. Now the doctors ( Indians are very innovative and unique) started charging more (mostly unnecessary treatments only to rip him off) for the people who are insured.. Ultimately it iis loss to the insurance companies. Unfortunately the insurance idiots are not realizing that. Now who is going to take this on? Another side effect is, once you get used to high costs they costs will be charged to non-insured also.
On second thoughts, I also cannot say insurance guys are idiots. They will just increase the insurance premium for next year. So ulitmately sufferer is mangaman. That is YOU and ME. A treatment to cataract costs 16K last year is 24 K this year. Imagine the kind of money the hospitals are making.
Long live India. Jai Hind.
hopefully time has come.....
Many banks are declaring huge fall in profits and huge rise in NPAs. There are declared and undeclared NPA's in Indian Banking System. Again, there is a difference between public and private banks in this aspect. Private bank in my opinion cook books more than public sector banks. If the declared NPA's are 2 % we can safely assume undeclaredd NPA's are atleast 10%. They say this undeclared NPA as 'restructured loans'. Many banks are fighting this impending danger. Let us see how this pans out. I love to see the banks which fanned real estate bubble to suffer the most.
Obama win is not going to do any good for struggling Indian IT industry. IT industry which is major contributor for real estate bubble will find it tough to grow. Salary increases cannot happen like before. One should note that the campus interviews are thud this year and the situation may not improve anytime soon. If we see 'the Hindu Opportunities' paper or 'Times Ascent 'paper we can understand the trend.
The sales of real estate is reduced by 50% in major metros and this trend is going to be intensified. Threatening poor RBI governor will not help. Allowing the bubble to burst would be good rather than saving the Real Estate Shark's ass
US, Europe and China is not going to grow anytime soon. I am really sick of calling the top for almost 2 years now. But I feel the time really has come. The more they support the more the fall would be.
But I am confused, how I would be positioning myself to face this??
Obama win is not going to do any good for struggling Indian IT industry. IT industry which is major contributor for real estate bubble will find it tough to grow. Salary increases cannot happen like before. One should note that the campus interviews are thud this year and the situation may not improve anytime soon. If we see 'the Hindu Opportunities' paper or 'Times Ascent 'paper we can understand the trend.
The sales of real estate is reduced by 50% in major metros and this trend is going to be intensified. Threatening poor RBI governor will not help. Allowing the bubble to burst would be good rather than saving the Real Estate Shark's ass
US, Europe and China is not going to grow anytime soon. I am really sick of calling the top for almost 2 years now. But I feel the time really has come. The more they support the more the fall would be.
But I am confused, how I would be positioning myself to face this??
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
The saviour of share market Chidambaram
Chidambaram has a dubious distinction of 'share market saviour'. Whenever he comes to power, he tries to help the markets. He is always bullish. He uses all the tricks in the book to take the markets up.
Now he openly started challenging RBI. It looks like threatening now. he seems to be losing the common wisdom that is expected from a economist. What a pity?
When inflation is at double digits would you believe that a finance minister of the country openly threatening/forcing his country's central bank to cut rates only to save the blood sucking Real Esate Mafia? Unimaginable. This can happen only in India. Still people are mum. People simply donot care if their day to day expenses raises at a alarming pace, but they are only worried that their real estate investments should not go bad.
The comedy is by allowing FDI in aviation ( there is a hidden selfishness about saving state run banks here} and by allowing FDI in retail ( thousands of small traders life in limbo}, we think that we have done a great reform and expect economy to improve. Everybody with little bit of commonsense would know that by doing this government is trying to boost share market sentiment and by luring FII money they think they can bridge their CAD. The irony is the hot money can go at the same pace.
I believe Chidambaram is trying to boost sentiment at the cost of long term economic benefits for the country oonly to postpone the inevitable until 2014 elections. Unfortunately nature has a terrible way of paying back and I am quite sure now, the inevitable crash will happen before elections and Congress is going to pay dearly for this.
Now he openly started challenging RBI. It looks like threatening now. he seems to be losing the common wisdom that is expected from a economist. What a pity?
When inflation is at double digits would you believe that a finance minister of the country openly threatening/forcing his country's central bank to cut rates only to save the blood sucking Real Esate Mafia? Unimaginable. This can happen only in India. Still people are mum. People simply donot care if their day to day expenses raises at a alarming pace, but they are only worried that their real estate investments should not go bad.
The comedy is by allowing FDI in aviation ( there is a hidden selfishness about saving state run banks here} and by allowing FDI in retail ( thousands of small traders life in limbo}, we think that we have done a great reform and expect economy to improve. Everybody with little bit of commonsense would know that by doing this government is trying to boost share market sentiment and by luring FII money they think they can bridge their CAD. The irony is the hot money can go at the same pace.
I believe Chidambaram is trying to boost sentiment at the cost of long term economic benefits for the country oonly to postpone the inevitable until 2014 elections. Unfortunately nature has a terrible way of paying back and I am quite sure now, the inevitable crash will happen before elections and Congress is going to pay dearly for this.
Comedy by SBI chief
SBI Chief had said yesterday that CRR is a waste of economy.
I am wondering what about the 1500 crore he gifted to Mallya? Is that not waste?. Dear Sir, CRR will be used to compensate the unsuspecting savers of the country when you makes loss by dancing to Mallya's tunes.
He also said something like 'even after 10 rate hikes inflation is not controlled' . I am amused at this idiotic statement. Had Subbarao raised 1 or 2 percentage more a year ago, today inflation would have been under control. Subbarao also knew that mistake and he is trying to control the damage by holding on the rates. He also knew these blood sucking corporate vultures may even get rid of him if he raises rate.
People like SBI chief are responsible for Real estate bubble and forgetting that he is working for a state run bank he competes with corporate vultures for people's blood. What a irony? Dear sir, I am worrying what you will be telling next year, when due to real estate crash, your bank's assets quality takes a hit?
One remembers that after taking over he provisioned bad loans he acquired from his predessor and he would have thought the economy will continue to boom so that he can show huge profits quarter on quarter. But he forgot basic economics that the economy works in cyclical fashion. He is seeing the fall the SBI shares now under his regime. The best thing he can do is to prevent the asset quality from slipping instead of nudging/harassing RBI to cut rates.
Please remember. You work for the country.
I am wondering what about the 1500 crore he gifted to Mallya? Is that not waste?. Dear Sir, CRR will be used to compensate the unsuspecting savers of the country when you makes loss by dancing to Mallya's tunes.
He also said something like 'even after 10 rate hikes inflation is not controlled' . I am amused at this idiotic statement. Had Subbarao raised 1 or 2 percentage more a year ago, today inflation would have been under control. Subbarao also knew that mistake and he is trying to control the damage by holding on the rates. He also knew these blood sucking corporate vultures may even get rid of him if he raises rate.
People like SBI chief are responsible for Real estate bubble and forgetting that he is working for a state run bank he competes with corporate vultures for people's blood. What a irony? Dear sir, I am worrying what you will be telling next year, when due to real estate crash, your bank's assets quality takes a hit?
One remembers that after taking over he provisioned bad loans he acquired from his predessor and he would have thought the economy will continue to boom so that he can show huge profits quarter on quarter. But he forgot basic economics that the economy works in cyclical fashion. He is seeing the fall the SBI shares now under his regime. The best thing he can do is to prevent the asset quality from slipping instead of nudging/harassing RBI to cut rates.
Please remember. You work for the country.
Sunday, October 21, 2012
Shameless Bankers of India
"Selling assets of Kingfisher is last option for the lenders" - bank officers
One cannot stop laughing thinking about this absurd statement. Everybody knew that there is nothing left in kingfisher. The aircraft are leased and if at all anything to be salvaged by sale of assets, the first priority to be given to employee's salary which has not been paid for few months now.
The blood sucking bankers if at all they are interested to get back their money, they should have proceeded against kingfisher few months ( couple of years??) back. State bank of India ironically converted a portion of debt into equity valuing at 60 Rs per share when the shares traded at 30-40. Who will initiate probe against the responsible officer(s)?
Indian government on its part quite shamelessly expecting some foreign idiot to come in and invest in this bankrupt airlines. The government's aim is to save the ass of state run banks and they are not really interested in FDI in aviation. Otherwise they need not have added a clause which stops new airlines companies to form in India with FDI.
Shameless.
When inflation is at 8% consistently and CPI threatening to cross double digits Axis bank chairman and HDFC GM are pitching for rate cut. Again shameless act of trying to save their ass when country to going to dust.
Shameless.
One cannot stop laughing thinking about this absurd statement. Everybody knew that there is nothing left in kingfisher. The aircraft are leased and if at all anything to be salvaged by sale of assets, the first priority to be given to employee's salary which has not been paid for few months now.
The blood sucking bankers if at all they are interested to get back their money, they should have proceeded against kingfisher few months ( couple of years??) back. State bank of India ironically converted a portion of debt into equity valuing at 60 Rs per share when the shares traded at 30-40. Who will initiate probe against the responsible officer(s)?
Indian government on its part quite shamelessly expecting some foreign idiot to come in and invest in this bankrupt airlines. The government's aim is to save the ass of state run banks and they are not really interested in FDI in aviation. Otherwise they need not have added a clause which stops new airlines companies to form in India with FDI.
Shameless.
When inflation is at 8% consistently and CPI threatening to cross double digits Axis bank chairman and HDFC GM are pitching for rate cut. Again shameless act of trying to save their ass when country to going to dust.
Shameless.
Sunday, October 14, 2012
Who are Mango people and what is banana republic?
Initially I got angry when I heard Robert Vadra said the famous 'mango people in banana republic' comment. After few moments I realised that he has not said anything wrong. Infact what he said is absolutely true. Some of the articles in Firstpost and Economic times suggest he indeed is an idiot. But honestly I don't think so. It is true that we are mango people. We turn a blind eye when politicians and corporates make huge money at our cost. Instead we praise them. We are in a banana republic because instead of hard truth there is no action against any of the looters be it Vadra(DLF Scam) or A.Raja(2G scam) or M.M.Singh(Coal gate).
It is beyond the limits to my mango mind, when the highest court of the country says that auction route of one particular asset is wrong ( 2G, A.Raja is wrong, incidently he is an Tamilian and Dalit) and auction route is OK for another particular national asset ( Coal, Manmohan Singh is right). My mango mind is still confused. My mango mind did not bat for A.Raja but want Manmohan Singh also to be punished. As simple as it is. The so called intelligentia of our society, who ridiculed A.Raja for 1,76,000 crores chose to shut their mouth and other openings of their body about M.M.Singh where in his case the loss figures is around 10,00,000 crores. No public agitation or outcry. Are we not Mango people in banana republic?
To control Dengue, here is an minister who suggest school children to use full pants to avoid Mosquito bites. He is also suggesting to kill female Mosquitoes. My mango mind thinks how would you identify female mosquitoes to kill or why not you kill all mosquitoes? No public agitation or outcry. Are we not Mango people in banana republic?
When my salary risen from 6000 to 60000 with no apparent or little change in my life style or savings it is very clear that it is not growth but inflation effect. No public agitation or outcry instead we are made to pray that real estate should not fall as our hard earned money is converted to flats we bought at exorbitant jacked up prices. Are we not Mango people in banana republic?
It is beyond the limits to my mango mind, when the highest court of the country says that auction route of one particular asset is wrong ( 2G, A.Raja is wrong, incidently he is an Tamilian and Dalit) and auction route is OK for another particular national asset ( Coal, Manmohan Singh is right). My mango mind is still confused. My mango mind did not bat for A.Raja but want Manmohan Singh also to be punished. As simple as it is. The so called intelligentia of our society, who ridiculed A.Raja for 1,76,000 crores chose to shut their mouth and other openings of their body about M.M.Singh where in his case the loss figures is around 10,00,000 crores. No public agitation or outcry. Are we not Mango people in banana republic?
To control Dengue, here is an minister who suggest school children to use full pants to avoid Mosquito bites. He is also suggesting to kill female Mosquitoes. My mango mind thinks how would you identify female mosquitoes to kill or why not you kill all mosquitoes? No public agitation or outcry. Are we not Mango people in banana republic?
When my salary risen from 6000 to 60000 with no apparent or little change in my life style or savings it is very clear that it is not growth but inflation effect. No public agitation or outcry instead we are made to pray that real estate should not fall as our hard earned money is converted to flats we bought at exorbitant jacked up prices. Are we not Mango people in banana republic?
Sunday, August 26, 2012
Household Savings in GDP
The Household savings as a percentage is GDP is crashed to 7.8%. This is really a sorry state of affairs. But still the idiots who are running the show is not accepting this mistake and asking for further rate cut. Nobody is depositing money in the bank. Even Indians investment in equities are on the decline.
Many Indians who are investing in Real Estate and Gold. I do not know much about Gold ( even though I am sceptical about gold as an investment), but I am certain that people who invest in Real Estate will face the shock of their life soon. If Japan could not stop their real estate slide. Even mighty US could not stop their RE slide. who are we?
coming back to the point, I know many people who invested their hard earned money in real estatethinking that they can sell the real estate as their retirement fund. very interesting indeed.on one hand Chidambaram asking people to invest in money market instruments. On other hand he is pressuring RBI to cut interest rates. what a farce? We pride ourselves as a country to save and we boast exactly this is the reason that our banking sector is doing good. Now that is gone. What will happen next?
DON'T WE NEED TO RAISE INTEREST RATES NOW MR.CHIDAMBARAM?
Many Indians who are investing in Real Estate and Gold. I do not know much about Gold ( even though I am sceptical about gold as an investment), but I am certain that people who invest in Real Estate will face the shock of their life soon. If Japan could not stop their real estate slide. Even mighty US could not stop their RE slide. who are we?
coming back to the point, I know many people who invested their hard earned money in real estatethinking that they can sell the real estate as their retirement fund. very interesting indeed.on one hand Chidambaram asking people to invest in money market instruments. On other hand he is pressuring RBI to cut interest rates. what a farce? We pride ourselves as a country to save and we boast exactly this is the reason that our banking sector is doing good. Now that is gone. What will happen next?
DON'T WE NEED TO RAISE INTEREST RATES NOW MR.CHIDAMBARAM?
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
India economic outlook
Read the first post story below.
http://www.firstpost.com/economy/who-killed-the-india-growth-story-delhi-not-mint-st-416249.html?utm_source=MC_TOP_WIDGE
Attempts are being made to make Subbarao as scapegoat. He can easily escape by cutting rates to 0.5 to 1.0 percent. But will the economy recover? unlikely. Because the problem is not due to high interest rates.
The idiots who run the show and the brokers and frauds of so called corporate India is trying to save their
asses by making people fools. In a country where the real inflation runs over 11%, any sane person will ask
for interest rate cut, whererin the real interest rates are already at only 8% which is already 3% down from real inflation. God saves India.
These idiots think people will come and spend if you cut interest rates. Sorry boss. You are mistaken. That is not going to happen. PROBLEM LIES ELSEWHERE.
http://www.firstpost.com/economy/who-killed-the-india-growth-story-delhi-not-mint-st-416249.html?utm_source=MC_TOP_WIDGE
Attempts are being made to make Subbarao as scapegoat. He can easily escape by cutting rates to 0.5 to 1.0 percent. But will the economy recover? unlikely. Because the problem is not due to high interest rates.
The idiots who run the show and the brokers and frauds of so called corporate India is trying to save their
asses by making people fools. In a country where the real inflation runs over 11%, any sane person will ask
for interest rate cut, whererin the real interest rates are already at only 8% which is already 3% down from real inflation. God saves India.
These idiots think people will come and spend if you cut interest rates. Sorry boss. You are mistaken. That is not going to happen. PROBLEM LIES ELSEWHERE.
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Thieves are unhappy because police patrol :)
RBI monetary policy: Realty firms unhappy over decision to keep rates changed
What a joke?
enjoy the article
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/news/rbi-monetary-policy-realty-firms-unhappy-over-decision-to-keep-rates-changed/articleshow/15295664.cms
Finally Bangalore RE Bust underway....
Guys,
Those of you who have waited patiently to see the end of most insane foolishness of the century is going to get rewarded for the wait....
Bangalore RE prices is on decline. This coupled with fall in IT sector will create huge opportunities for real estate bears. SIT TIGHT.
THE TIME IS NOW.
now read the article
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/realty-trends/bangalore-property-sales-down-by-40-per-cent-in-q1/articleshow/15291673.cms
Those of you who have waited patiently to see the end of most insane foolishness of the century is going to get rewarded for the wait....
Bangalore RE prices is on decline. This coupled with fall in IT sector will create huge opportunities for real estate bears. SIT TIGHT.
THE TIME IS NOW.
now read the article
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/realty-trends/bangalore-property-sales-down-by-40-per-cent-in-q1/articleshow/15291673.cms
Sunday, July 22, 2012
Global as well as local situation alarmingly worsen
Things are actually moving crash landing in China and India.
I am least bothered about China. But things are not great in India which is good news for the common man of India. IT which is the leading sector and probably important reason which hyped up the real estate prices in India is being screwed. Infosys is almost done thanks to K.V.Kamath. Almost 1 lakh engineers are in bench and it is fast rising. New orders are not forth coming even to TCS who is leading player in IT.
Now RBI is tightening screws at one end. God is playing his part perfectly by controlling the monsoon rains. Even though "let cut rates" lobby succeeds in cutting rate this month, it wont be helping corporate brokers. They are doomed.
Godrej comedian is again at CNBC with his begging bowl. Last heard he get into Real Estate in partnership with some European pension fund. Now we know the reason why he is begging for a rate cut.
Still now the government is not ready to touch the blood sucking real estate sharks. However news of sales dip by more than 40 to 50% is music to ears. This is further worsen. I am still patiently waiting for that
FIRST REAL ESTATE INVESTOR'S PANIC SELLING...which is going to cause a crash in Indian Real Estate market.
I am least bothered about China. But things are not great in India which is good news for the common man of India. IT which is the leading sector and probably important reason which hyped up the real estate prices in India is being screwed. Infosys is almost done thanks to K.V.Kamath. Almost 1 lakh engineers are in bench and it is fast rising. New orders are not forth coming even to TCS who is leading player in IT.
Now RBI is tightening screws at one end. God is playing his part perfectly by controlling the monsoon rains. Even though "let cut rates" lobby succeeds in cutting rate this month, it wont be helping corporate brokers. They are doomed.
Godrej comedian is again at CNBC with his begging bowl. Last heard he get into Real Estate in partnership with some European pension fund. Now we know the reason why he is begging for a rate cut.
Still now the government is not ready to touch the blood sucking real estate sharks. However news of sales dip by more than 40 to 50% is music to ears. This is further worsen. I am still patiently waiting for that
FIRST REAL ESTATE INVESTOR'S PANIC SELLING...which is going to cause a crash in Indian Real Estate market.
We have such fools at helm of affair :(
http://www.hindustantimes.com/business-news/InterviewsBusiness/We-should-go-for-10-inflation-and-11-growth-Kaushik-Basu/Article1-892720.aspx?google_editors_picks=true
Read the above article wherein somebody who is regarded as a economic wizard talks rubbish. These bufoons not bothering about people dying due to inflation. They are hell bent to save the asses of corporate mafia and media brokers.
What a tragedy?
Read the above article wherein somebody who is regarded as a economic wizard talks rubbish. These bufoons not bothering about people dying due to inflation. They are hell bent to save the asses of corporate mafia and media brokers.
What a tragedy?
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Still many could not come to terms with RBI decision.
But see the stock markets.They have took that into their strides and going ahead. That is the spirit baby. cry babies like Anand sharma and other industry honchos should not take these personal.
When a poor middle class guy could not buy house because of government inflated bubble, he has nobody to complain. Now when car companies could not find bakra's why should they wine?
If Real estate brokers(sharks) could not find bakra's why should they complain?
What the hell?
But see the stock markets.They have took that into their strides and going ahead. That is the spirit baby. cry babies like Anand sharma and other industry honchos should not take these personal.
When a poor middle class guy could not buy house because of government inflated bubble, he has nobody to complain. Now when car companies could not find bakra's why should they wine?
If Real estate brokers(sharks) could not find bakra's why should they complain?
What the hell?
Monday, June 18, 2012
Rate cuts and Subbrao
Kudos to Subbarao
RBI Governor D.Subbarao comes to party. Even though he comes late he came latest. Inspite of all the pressures from Government, Corporate Mafia and media brokers he held his fort like a man possessed. This gives us a comfort that atleast somebody is thinking long term for the betterment of country. As I wrote earlier, he was a worried man after last month mis adventure and he is now trying to make amends.
Inspite of Pranab Mukherjee's pressure, he handsomely declined to cut the rates. In fact the brokers and mafia should thank their stars for Subbarao not to raise the interest rates. Such is the state of economy that cutting rates is idiotic.
SBI and Its Chairman
Like a cheap road side fellow, SBI was trying a cheap trick last week. They claimed to cut rates from 0.5 to 3.5 for some sectors which no one heard of. They also said that they will cut further if RBI cuts CRR. They claim the SBI interest rate cut was not applied to retail. Some sections of SME and Agriculture was the beneficiary. As a ex-banker we know already the agriculture loan normal rate id 7-8 and below. Did they cut to 4% now? Whom they are trying to fool. Subbarao ignored these cheap tactics. Many know that this cheap trick is to induce RBI to cut rates and then swallow the interest into their balance sheets. I wonder why SBI forgot it social objectives and competing with blood suckers like HDFC and ICICI?
Godrej Comedian
This guy who could not come up with any reason for rate cut in CNBC today. But repeatedly telling that we need to cut rates. Now he started saying we need to cut CRR. Until last month he was talking about Repo. Now he was taking about CRR. Somebody might have told him that SBI is begging RBI for CRR cut. So he also started like a tape recorder. We know he forayed into real estate and he wants that bubble to be inflated further until he sells all his assets. Poor guy.
Tale of Core-Inflation
Media brokers and Corporate mafia found and coined a new term called core-inflation. I really dont understand these guys. Are they really idiots or acting like one? we need to know this. When RBI says people are suffering from Inflation, these idiots are telling core-inflation is reducing. Core-inflation means manufactured goods inflation. Am I buying heavy machineries to my home every month? I buy groceries damn it.
What policy paralysis
Until now, our fuel prices are regularised. We were not facing issues. Why now? suddenly all are talking about policy paralysis. If the govt allows FDI in retail and FDI in aviation do you think our economy will improve? No. Mallya's financial condition only will improve.
Attack Real Estate
For real growth to return, we need to prick the real estate bubble.
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
This country is going to collapse
"இந்த நாடுà®®் நாட்டு மக்களுà®®் நாசமாக போகட்டுà®®் "
The above is a famous dialogue from a tamil movie which roughly translates into "This country and its people are going to suffer badly". This aptly fits to India's current state of affairs.
Today IIP data comes are 0.1. I am pretty sure that the govt spin masters did not want to show negative figures for second consecutive month. So they made as if it looks like a positive figure. The drama does not end here. The brokers ( lets cut rates lobby) started their rheoteric and this time they are very arrogant. They said that they are not bothered about inflation. So now the cat is out of the bag. We know all along these b******s are not bothered about aam aadmi and they are concerned about their fat paychecks and corporate profits. Since they are earning in crores in case of slow down or recession they can leave happy life. Only the middle class herd crowd will suffer hugely. Sadly this middle class idiots are not understanding this and playing cheer leaders to corporate mafia.
If we cut interest rate, we are officially gonna to say that our interest rate is fuckingly low than the official inflation. Won't foreigners laugh at us by seeing this. Remember I am not talking about the CPI which many countries use. We talk about WPI. CPI is 10 and more. WPI is 7 and more. Now already our interest rates are less than inflation which is a great joke. But we are now going to do that in terms of WPI. RBI is going to be a laughing stock.
Dont forget the currency is damaged and out of shape now. The prudent way is to raise rates. That is what a educated banker is supposed to do.
Also please dont forget that the rate cut will not be passed on the customers. It will be eaten by the banks.
RBI is misssing another golden opportunity to prick the bubble.
But one silver lining is Chakravarty is making right noises. But one summon from north block will make these guys to eat humble pie.
My solution
*******
Increase rates by 2 percent. We will be OK within one year.
The above is a famous dialogue from a tamil movie which roughly translates into "This country and its people are going to suffer badly". This aptly fits to India's current state of affairs.
Today IIP data comes are 0.1. I am pretty sure that the govt spin masters did not want to show negative figures for second consecutive month. So they made as if it looks like a positive figure. The drama does not end here. The brokers ( lets cut rates lobby) started their rheoteric and this time they are very arrogant. They said that they are not bothered about inflation. So now the cat is out of the bag. We know all along these b******s are not bothered about aam aadmi and they are concerned about their fat paychecks and corporate profits. Since they are earning in crores in case of slow down or recession they can leave happy life. Only the middle class herd crowd will suffer hugely. Sadly this middle class idiots are not understanding this and playing cheer leaders to corporate mafia.
If we cut interest rate, we are officially gonna to say that our interest rate is fuckingly low than the official inflation. Won't foreigners laugh at us by seeing this. Remember I am not talking about the CPI which many countries use. We talk about WPI. CPI is 10 and more. WPI is 7 and more. Now already our interest rates are less than inflation which is a great joke. But we are now going to do that in terms of WPI. RBI is going to be a laughing stock.
Dont forget the currency is damaged and out of shape now. The prudent way is to raise rates. That is what a educated banker is supposed to do.
Also please dont forget that the rate cut will not be passed on the customers. It will be eaten by the banks.
RBI is misssing another golden opportunity to prick the bubble.
But one silver lining is Chakravarty is making right noises. But one summon from north block will make these guys to eat humble pie.
My solution
*******
Increase rates by 2 percent. We will be OK within one year.
Sunday, June 10, 2012
What will happen>>>>
Now Subbarao and company is facing the heat from this 'lets cut rates' lobby. Since the two deputy governor's gave contrasting signals stage is set for a exciting finale. At best my guess would be markets may not go anywhere this week. Action will start from inflation and IIP and then we go over to Greece and RBI.
This week and next week Monday and Tuesday will be very interestng so to say.
My guesses are:
I think Subbarao would not cut rates.
Inflation is around 7%.
IIP is negative to modestly positive.
Greece remains euro zone.
Friday, June 1, 2012
Mafia at it again with begging bowls
Corporate brokers are cleaning their begging bowel and are ready to gate crash into Subbrao's home. Mr.Subbarao is sitting at a place where he can easily gone into one of the great's of India.
Corporate Mafia/brokers who does not think twice even to sell their wife are ready to put pressure of RBI governor inspite of inflation and rupee depreciation etc.
RATE CUT IS FOOLISH NOW AS INFLATION IS HIGH AND EXPECTED TO MOVE HIGHER.
RATE CUT IS FOOLISH BECAUSE RUPEE DEPRECIATED HUGELY AND NOT EXPECTED TO APPRECIATE IN NEAR TERM
Now is the apt time to prick the property price bubble and just make way to move huge money sleeping in RE sharks den to real economy. Now or Never.
Mr.Subbarao ..Are you listening?
we know last month you are armtwisted by these guys. Now you have a reason ( not 'a' reason, world of reasons). Will ya?
Corporate Mafia/brokers who does not think twice even to sell their wife are ready to put pressure of RBI governor inspite of inflation and rupee depreciation etc.
RATE CUT IS FOOLISH NOW AS INFLATION IS HIGH AND EXPECTED TO MOVE HIGHER.
RATE CUT IS FOOLISH BECAUSE RUPEE DEPRECIATED HUGELY AND NOT EXPECTED TO APPRECIATE IN NEAR TERM
Now is the apt time to prick the property price bubble and just make way to move huge money sleeping in RE sharks den to real economy. Now or Never.
Mr.Subbarao ..Are you listening?
we know last month you are armtwisted by these guys. Now you have a reason ( not 'a' reason, world of reasons). Will ya?
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
It comforts you :)
Guys! hope you all would agree when I say we feel happy if somebody shares your views on important matters..one such view is pasted here...I took it from the blog India housing bubble the url is shared below..
http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=19740856&postID=5730843190380714740
******
RE is in a clear bubble and the govt. should have allowed it to go bust in 2008 but they did not. Instead, they let it blow even bigger. And that is how bubbles operate - when everyone thinks its bust time, they grow even bigger and suck in even more number of people. The resulting clean up takes even longer and is even more painful.
Look at equity markets. If they rally 25% in the next 6 months even then they will be at the same level as they were 5 years backk in Jan 2008. So no returns for 5 years even in nominal terms.
The same things is coming for RE
eal estate is in a bubble by design, not by co-incidence.
The thing is, if you are the government of any nation on this planet today, you have to show literally crazed growth rates as a part and parcel of "globalism", and the usual way to do that is to emit as much money as you can from your central banks.
Unfortunately, this money, if uncontrolled, causes a rather unpleasant effect called price inflation, which governments understandably are scared of, given that unleashing inflation on the poverty stricken masses is a certain recipe for regime change at best, and the guillotine at worst.
Diverting this newly minted money to avenues like real estate is the only way that countries may print up wads of cash without causing significant inflation in prices of day to day goods.
Thus, governments create artificial incentives, such as tax breaks and so on for people buying houses to prop up and sustain real estate.
It is no wonder then that real estate bubbles are so resilient, and when they burst, they usually take down the entire national economy with them. And so, governments must protect real estate prices at all cost.
This is like riding a tiger - once you hop on, there is no way for you to hop off because the moment you do, you will become the tiger's dinner. The ride continues to get wilder, but you hang on for dear life.
But then an external event happens - the tiger slows down, or stumbles, or speeds up, or takes a turn, or whatever, and you lose your balance and fall. You get eaten, but you can then blame it on the external event.
Thus, the fundamentally flawed idea of the Euro can be safely blamed on Greece; or the fundamentally flawed idea of inflation of the money supply can blamed on the subprime crisis.
With this background, I trust you realize that the situation is this: If you want to get your real estate prices under control, you will have to reduce your rate of inflating the money supply.
If you do that, you will kill the general economy - real estate loans will die, taking many banks to the grave with them, exports will plunge because of a stronger currency; NRIs will find it harder to invest in India and so on.
But you will save the rupee.
Or continue on the same path, real estate in nominal terms will go up; exports will boom, NRI money will flow in again and so on.
But you will kill the rupee.
Governments rarely choose the first option; they continue to destroy the currency till real estate prices reach levels that are so high that they naturally correct; and at that time it becomes too late to save real estate or the currency.
Then they drag their feet, hoping for either a scapegoat to lay the blame on, or a miracle to save their asses.
If the populace is especially docile, like in Japan, you get lost decades, wherein everything stagnates for extended periods of time and people generally experience creeping reductions in their purchasing power.
In India, you can bet that the government will not let real estate prices come down in nominal (i.e., Rupee) terms. They will weaken the currency till they can get away with it, i.e., till foreign governments refuse to lend or till the rise in import prices threatens to destabilize the coalitions.
Then they'll try to hop off the tiger by reducing the rate of money printing, but that very action will be the trigger for a massive real estate crash.
The message will go out to the marginal real estate speculator that real estate prices will stagnate or fall; and that will coerce him not to buy; causing a real fall; causing others to not buy, causing a steeper fall... and so on.
Engineers know this as a positive feedback loop, and once this happens, there is no way to avoid instability or complete failure of the system.
This is the simplest explanation that I can come up with for what will happen. Bubble deniers will no doubt bring in many counter arguments - such as demographics, such as corruption, black money, and so on; but this is the mechanism of a bubble burst, and every one bubbles past has burst this exact way, regardless of all other variables.
The question is what are you going to do.
http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=19740856&postID=5730843190380714740
******
RE is in a clear bubble and the govt. should have allowed it to go bust in 2008 but they did not. Instead, they let it blow even bigger. And that is how bubbles operate - when everyone thinks its bust time, they grow even bigger and suck in even more number of people. The resulting clean up takes even longer and is even more painful.
Look at equity markets. If they rally 25% in the next 6 months even then they will be at the same level as they were 5 years backk in Jan 2008. So no returns for 5 years even in nominal terms.
The same things is coming for RE
eal estate is in a bubble by design, not by co-incidence.
The thing is, if you are the government of any nation on this planet today, you have to show literally crazed growth rates as a part and parcel of "globalism", and the usual way to do that is to emit as much money as you can from your central banks.
Unfortunately, this money, if uncontrolled, causes a rather unpleasant effect called price inflation, which governments understandably are scared of, given that unleashing inflation on the poverty stricken masses is a certain recipe for regime change at best, and the guillotine at worst.
Diverting this newly minted money to avenues like real estate is the only way that countries may print up wads of cash without causing significant inflation in prices of day to day goods.
Thus, governments create artificial incentives, such as tax breaks and so on for people buying houses to prop up and sustain real estate.
It is no wonder then that real estate bubbles are so resilient, and when they burst, they usually take down the entire national economy with them. And so, governments must protect real estate prices at all cost.
This is like riding a tiger - once you hop on, there is no way for you to hop off because the moment you do, you will become the tiger's dinner. The ride continues to get wilder, but you hang on for dear life.
But then an external event happens - the tiger slows down, or stumbles, or speeds up, or takes a turn, or whatever, and you lose your balance and fall. You get eaten, but you can then blame it on the external event.
Thus, the fundamentally flawed idea of the Euro can be safely blamed on Greece; or the fundamentally flawed idea of inflation of the money supply can blamed on the subprime crisis.
With this background, I trust you realize that the situation is this: If you want to get your real estate prices under control, you will have to reduce your rate of inflating the money supply.
If you do that, you will kill the general economy - real estate loans will die, taking many banks to the grave with them, exports will plunge because of a stronger currency; NRIs will find it harder to invest in India and so on.
But you will save the rupee.
Or continue on the same path, real estate in nominal terms will go up; exports will boom, NRI money will flow in again and so on.
But you will kill the rupee.
Governments rarely choose the first option; they continue to destroy the currency till real estate prices reach levels that are so high that they naturally correct; and at that time it becomes too late to save real estate or the currency.
Then they drag their feet, hoping for either a scapegoat to lay the blame on, or a miracle to save their asses.
If the populace is especially docile, like in Japan, you get lost decades, wherein everything stagnates for extended periods of time and people generally experience creeping reductions in their purchasing power.
In India, you can bet that the government will not let real estate prices come down in nominal (i.e., Rupee) terms. They will weaken the currency till they can get away with it, i.e., till foreign governments refuse to lend or till the rise in import prices threatens to destabilize the coalitions.
Then they'll try to hop off the tiger by reducing the rate of money printing, but that very action will be the trigger for a massive real estate crash.
The message will go out to the marginal real estate speculator that real estate prices will stagnate or fall; and that will coerce him not to buy; causing a real fall; causing others to not buy, causing a steeper fall... and so on.
Engineers know this as a positive feedback loop, and once this happens, there is no way to avoid instability or complete failure of the system.
This is the simplest explanation that I can come up with for what will happen. Bubble deniers will no doubt bring in many counter arguments - such as demographics, such as corruption, black money, and so on; but this is the mechanism of a bubble burst, and every one bubbles past has burst this exact way, regardless of all other variables.
The question is what are you going to do.
Sunday, May 27, 2012
Huge fall - Lottery
If you are bear, this week it is worth to try put options.
FII's sold huge index futures this month and if this is what I think, we will see huge fall in this week in Indian Share markets. 4700 will be broken on the downside. Remember 4700 put is 4.75 Rs and 4800 put is 14 Rs now.
I bet Rs.5000/- on 4800 put. Let us see.
FII's sold huge index futures this month and if this is what I think, we will see huge fall in this week in Indian Share markets. 4700 will be broken on the downside. Remember 4700 put is 4.75 Rs and 4800 put is 14 Rs now.
I bet Rs.5000/- on 4800 put. Let us see.
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
This is too much guys
I read several news titles like ' RBI watches as Re slides', ' RBI could not control rupee slide', 'Is RBI failing' blah blah.
The same idiots arm twisted RBI into cutting interest rates mindlessly and stopped RBI from raising interest rates to adequate levels. Now we are paying the price for assuming 9% growth is given for India by lord Rama until sensex crosses 60000. Sorry guys. That is wrong.
Our woes has just started. The corporates are bleeding. Behind their smiles hidden are the fears of catapulation. Blaming RBI is not the solution. Have we ever allowed to do its duty? Yes! true they got carried away little bit. But should we also agree that we are also part of the problem?
whenever they raise interest rates, we discouraged them by saying it is bad. We are so used to easy money. We ignored the guys who really saves. We proudly talks about Indian savings but offlate we forget the savings and we absolutely have no rights to criticize US and European countries. We are not giving any benefits to the guys who are depositing their hard earned money into bank. Believe me Guys, RE cannot appreciate continously.
Are we better than US Federal Reserve in printing? we know the answer right?
I wonder where these corporate brokers who pitched for rate cuts are hiding now? Mr. Bajaj, Mr. Keki Mistry, Ms, Shika, Mr.K.V.Kamath. ( yeah K.V.Kamath is busy in destroying Infy).
I hope rate cutting is not an option in RBI's armoury now.
The same idiots arm twisted RBI into cutting interest rates mindlessly and stopped RBI from raising interest rates to adequate levels. Now we are paying the price for assuming 9% growth is given for India by lord Rama until sensex crosses 60000. Sorry guys. That is wrong.
Our woes has just started. The corporates are bleeding. Behind their smiles hidden are the fears of catapulation. Blaming RBI is not the solution. Have we ever allowed to do its duty? Yes! true they got carried away little bit. But should we also agree that we are also part of the problem?
whenever they raise interest rates, we discouraged them by saying it is bad. We are so used to easy money. We ignored the guys who really saves. We proudly talks about Indian savings but offlate we forget the savings and we absolutely have no rights to criticize US and European countries. We are not giving any benefits to the guys who are depositing their hard earned money into bank. Believe me Guys, RE cannot appreciate continously.
Are we better than US Federal Reserve in printing? we know the answer right?
I wonder where these corporate brokers who pitched for rate cuts are hiding now? Mr. Bajaj, Mr. Keki Mistry, Ms, Shika, Mr.K.V.Kamath. ( yeah K.V.Kamath is busy in destroying Infy).
I hope rate cutting is not an option in RBI's armoury now.
Sunday, May 20, 2012
Why the f*** we want high interest rates?
These days everybody used to cheap money. Government used all its might in the past decade by fooling people and now people are very happy with high inflation regime. The same people ridiculed Zimbabwe when they print 1 million currency note.
When we pitch for high interest, we are being looked like a villian who comes to crash their party. Excuse me. your party is already done with. Now it is pay back time. Today we will rewind some of the basic economics
1. Capial should not be created by central banks. Capital moves from savers. People save from their earnings by way of bank deposits and it moves from banks to business.
2. The cost of capital should be always 2% more than the prevailing inflation.
3. In India as per govt figures inflation is 7.5%. Consumer inflation says it is 10.5.
4. We all know, real inflation is more than govt figures.And world over countries use consumer inflation and not like India where we use WPI.
5. Taking all into accounts, I liberally give the benefit of doubt to govt, and assume real infation is somewhere near 10%.
6. Based on this fact, interest rate should be atleast 12% for somebody who wants to save. if it is not so, can I say RBI is doing a fraud on the system and government is cheating the common man who comes and deposit his hard earned money in Bank?
We are atleast 4% down from the real interest rates. Can any economist reply to me. It is an open challenge.
When we pitch for high interest, we are being looked like a villian who comes to crash their party. Excuse me. your party is already done with. Now it is pay back time. Today we will rewind some of the basic economics
1. Capial should not be created by central banks. Capital moves from savers. People save from their earnings by way of bank deposits and it moves from banks to business.
2. The cost of capital should be always 2% more than the prevailing inflation.
3. In India as per govt figures inflation is 7.5%. Consumer inflation says it is 10.5.
4. We all know, real inflation is more than govt figures.And world over countries use consumer inflation and not like India where we use WPI.
5. Taking all into accounts, I liberally give the benefit of doubt to govt, and assume real infation is somewhere near 10%.
6. Based on this fact, interest rate should be atleast 12% for somebody who wants to save. if it is not so, can I say RBI is doing a fraud on the system and government is cheating the common man who comes and deposit his hard earned money in Bank?
We are atleast 4% down from the real interest rates. Can any economist reply to me. It is an open challenge.
Thursday, May 17, 2012
//When asked about the range of the rupee, Axis Bank Managing Director and Chief Executive Shikha Sharma said it (54 to a dollar) is a "fair level."//
We need to have few heads examined LOL
Anybody to know little common sense would know what is the fair value of Rupee. Unless you increase interest rates by atleast 3 percent you cannot save Rupee from nosediving to 60+...
We need to have few heads examined LOL
Anybody to know little common sense would know what is the fair value of Rupee. Unless you increase interest rates by atleast 3 percent you cannot save Rupee from nosediving to 60+...
The same guys vehemently argued for interest rate cut and got it. Sadly enough they did not pass on it to customers. Now they are telling Rupee value is fair enough.
I wonder what they are going to say their balance sheets when RE crashes?
Monday, May 14, 2012
Will subbarao think?
Today's inflation data is an eye opener to many. Double digit food inflation is not ajoke.government is drinking blood of innocent people to benefit real estate and corporate mafia.
Simple solution continued....
Corporate mafia are crying for capital. I will tell a simple, yet powerful solution. But it may be painful for few but believe me nobody will go jobless when you follow this.
RAISE THE INTEREST RATE BY 2 PERCENT.
PASS THE REAL ESTATE REGULATORY BILL.
BRING ALL THE MONEY HOARDED IN INDIAN REAL ESTATE INTO THE TABLE.
Yeah! it may be painful for some banks. But may not be for common people and country. The money hoarded in unsold apartments will come to the circulation and all the froths will be eliminated. It is not done now for obvious reasons as every politician irrespective of party hoarded their unaccounted money in real estate sector.
To make matters worst we not even ready to discuss this.
Atleast we can make a start by banning POA sales by following the foot steps of Delhi state.
( to be continued)
Corporate mafia are crying for capital. I will tell a simple, yet powerful solution. But it may be painful for few but believe me nobody will go jobless when you follow this.
RAISE THE INTEREST RATE BY 2 PERCENT.
PASS THE REAL ESTATE REGULATORY BILL.
BRING ALL THE MONEY HOARDED IN INDIAN REAL ESTATE INTO THE TABLE.
Yeah! it may be painful for some banks. But may not be for common people and country. The money hoarded in unsold apartments will come to the circulation and all the froths will be eliminated. It is not done now for obvious reasons as every politician irrespective of party hoarded their unaccounted money in real estate sector.
To make matters worst we not even ready to discuss this.
Atleast we can make a start by banning POA sales by following the foot steps of Delhi state.
( to be continued)
Saturday, May 12, 2012
Mr.Subbarao, Please stand up like a man in this once in a life time opportunity
The IIP figures are painting a dismal picture as expected in this blog.
The corporate brokers like godrej and Mafia like ICICI,AXIS and HDFC Bank all started next set of rheoteric for rate cut. Do you remember this same guys pitched for rate cut last month and after rate cut did not pass on the benefit to the end users? Ok. let it.
Now shamelessly they started crying for next rate cut. They are worried about their balance sheet and their bonus and not bothered about the aam aadmi who is struggling in this high inflation. My receipe to Mr.Subbarao is simple.
RAISE THE INTEREST RATE BY 2 PERCENT.
If you do this, with 6 months all the froths in the economy will be cleaned up. Allow the failed corporates to fail. Put a curb of dirty practice of loan restructuring by our own banks. There is a huge scam to be unearthed here.
Alas, our rupee dangerously nearing 54 will make things different to RBI.
(to be continued)
The corporate brokers like godrej and Mafia like ICICI,AXIS and HDFC Bank all started next set of rheoteric for rate cut. Do you remember this same guys pitched for rate cut last month and after rate cut did not pass on the benefit to the end users? Ok. let it.
Now shamelessly they started crying for next rate cut. They are worried about their balance sheet and their bonus and not bothered about the aam aadmi who is struggling in this high inflation. My receipe to Mr.Subbarao is simple.
RAISE THE INTEREST RATE BY 2 PERCENT.
If you do this, with 6 months all the froths in the economy will be cleaned up. Allow the failed corporates to fail. Put a curb of dirty practice of loan restructuring by our own banks. There is a huge scam to be unearthed here.
Alas, our rupee dangerously nearing 54 will make things different to RBI.
(to be continued)
Friday, May 4, 2012
I pity RBI
I pity for them but this is not going to end so soon.
Increasing NRI rate upto 3% at one stretch is awful. They expect money will flow. I am sorry sir. They all knew INR will cross 60 very soon unless we prick some bubbles which are fanned and supported by your
bosses.
Subbarao must be wondering what went into him when he reduced the interest rates instead of raising.
The stock markets started their next journey down and this is going to be bumby.
Increasing NRI rate upto 3% at one stretch is awful. They expect money will flow. I am sorry sir. They all knew INR will cross 60 very soon unless we prick some bubbles which are fanned and supported by your
bosses.
Subbarao must be wondering what went into him when he reduced the interest rates instead of raising.
The stock markets started their next journey down and this is going to be bumby.
Very soon we will be grounded...
We are strange breeds.
When world over governments are fighting to control inflation, we are actually trying to increase inflation by cutting interest rates. We general public are are foolishly believing that we are getting richer day by day. Since most of us who criticize government already fallen into government trap by buying RE based assets at huge price we have no other option :(
One analyst expect dollar index to touch 86-88 soon. Now it is near 79-80. It is cool 10%. Now apply this logic upside down and calculate where INR would go against dollar. It is simple math dear. 60 Rs for 1 Dollar. I believe this theory and badly pray that this should happen. THIS WILL HAPPEN.
Now it is nearing 54. RBI cannot support as it already used it ammunition ( control on trading position) and the other ammunition (dollar selling) is risky as the country is running out of forex. Now what to do?
I have the solution. It is very simple. Eventhough your mind agrees, your heart won't.
1. Burst the RE bubble.
2. Declare sick companies as sick instead of restructure their loans
3. Increase tax on cars multifold
4. Go after tax evaders not only FII and also inland traders and industrialists. It is a shame that only around 4 lakh people are declaring that they earn more than 20 Lakh in a year in India. What a shame?
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Do we have backbone?
FII's are blackmailing Indian government in GAAR issue.
Everybody knew that the mauritius route is being used to evade tax. When the government try to take on the evaders they resort to blackmail. Now FII stop trading in Indian bourses ( well many of them). It is like a cartel and they openly challenge Indian government. They dont want to be taxed for the huge profit they make in Indian markets.
Now they are waiting for May 7th to know the government response for their virtual undeclared strike. I hope government show some spine and tighten the screws on this sharks. If they can invest in every other country by paying the necessary taxes why not here? Also it is rumoured these money are actually Indian black money re-routed. I think even if we tax all these mauritius firms also, after a knee jerk reaction they need to continue here as India is reasonably growing compared with others. They are just checking our endurance.
Let us see what govt is up to?
Everybody knew that the mauritius route is being used to evade tax. When the government try to take on the evaders they resort to blackmail. Now FII stop trading in Indian bourses ( well many of them). It is like a cartel and they openly challenge Indian government. They dont want to be taxed for the huge profit they make in Indian markets.
Now they are waiting for May 7th to know the government response for their virtual undeclared strike. I hope government show some spine and tighten the screws on this sharks. If they can invest in every other country by paying the necessary taxes why not here? Also it is rumoured these money are actually Indian black money re-routed. I think even if we tax all these mauritius firms also, after a knee jerk reaction they need to continue here as India is reasonably growing compared with others. They are just checking our endurance.
Let us see what govt is up to?
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Are we fools?
It seems we are living in denial mode.
Wise men (no, no, not me!) are telling that some thing is wrong with our economy. We are saying many things are wrong with our economy. Yesterday S&P downgraded India outlook and it will not take much time to downgrade our credit rating.
We are counting on handful of reforms like opening up retail, DTC, diesel price deregulation etc to deliver. But problem lies elsewhere and nobody is ready to talk about that. Problem is inflation. Mindless money is being injected into the system to benefit a handful and this is hurting people. Reserve Bank though understand this but cannot do anything. We are obsessed with 9% growth rate.
If RBI can be armtwisted into reducing interest rates then god save the country. Just heard that the food inflation touches 9% and food prices heading higher. Next month we will see double digit food inflation and Mr.Subbarao will be forced to eat humble pie.
All the so called industry leaders, economists are talking as if nothing has happened. These guys in my opinion have sensex and nifty as their barometer to measure the performance of Indian economy. On the other hand our financial markets are fully dependent on FII money. These FII's even went to the extent saying that ' If you tax me, I will make you to pay, by failing your market systems', Interesting ha...
You can ask...Yes, china is cutting rates, Brazil does that...WE CANNOT because our Rupee value is going down, our import bill is increasing, crude is increasing...
HAPPY INVESTING GUYS..
Wise men (no, no, not me!) are telling that some thing is wrong with our economy. We are saying many things are wrong with our economy. Yesterday S&P downgraded India outlook and it will not take much time to downgrade our credit rating.
We are counting on handful of reforms like opening up retail, DTC, diesel price deregulation etc to deliver. But problem lies elsewhere and nobody is ready to talk about that. Problem is inflation. Mindless money is being injected into the system to benefit a handful and this is hurting people. Reserve Bank though understand this but cannot do anything. We are obsessed with 9% growth rate.
If RBI can be armtwisted into reducing interest rates then god save the country. Just heard that the food inflation touches 9% and food prices heading higher. Next month we will see double digit food inflation and Mr.Subbarao will be forced to eat humble pie.
All the so called industry leaders, economists are talking as if nothing has happened. These guys in my opinion have sensex and nifty as their barometer to measure the performance of Indian economy. On the other hand our financial markets are fully dependent on FII money. These FII's even went to the extent saying that ' If you tax me, I will make you to pay, by failing your market systems', Interesting ha...
You can ask...Yes, china is cutting rates, Brazil does that...WE CANNOT because our Rupee value is going down, our import bill is increasing, crude is increasing...
HAPPY INVESTING GUYS..
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Subbarao risks his reputation
Subbarao could not sit tight.
Now the new norm for RBI in inflation front is 7%. RBI could not withstand the pressure from the corporate mafia and 'big brother' government. Let us see how it would affect you and me.
RBI comes up with a meek explanation for rate cut saying that the core inflation reduced below 5. Now the core inflation is nothing but inflation minus food and fuel. Unfortunately in India inflation is decided only by these components. These are the components affecting people much. RBI has taken a western concept and justified their judgement.
Former RBI Governor S.S.Tarapore, IMF and many other independent analysts slams RBI for this decision. Let us see who will get benefitted?
1. Inspite of rate cut banks are reluctant to pass on the benefits. That means the 50 bps will not be translated
into your loan EMI. We need to wait and watch.
2. It helps markets for a short time for sentiment booster.
3. It helps RE guys to try and sell their unsold inventory saying that the interest rate is gonna to reduce from
here.
4. RE guys and other corporates who are heavily indepted to banks are not going to benefit hugely by 50 bps even when the banks decided to pass on to them,
our CPI is well above 8%. Food inflation which was subdued during January due to base effect and seasonal effect rising its ugly face again. Rupee raises to 51.50 effortlessly. Congress losing in Delhi is a grim remainder that they cannot afford to take bold decisions.
By exhausting their arsenal, RBI cannot afford to cut the rates atleast for another 6 months minimum.
Interesting days ahead.
Now the new norm for RBI in inflation front is 7%. RBI could not withstand the pressure from the corporate mafia and 'big brother' government. Let us see how it would affect you and me.
RBI comes up with a meek explanation for rate cut saying that the core inflation reduced below 5. Now the core inflation is nothing but inflation minus food and fuel. Unfortunately in India inflation is decided only by these components. These are the components affecting people much. RBI has taken a western concept and justified their judgement.
Former RBI Governor S.S.Tarapore, IMF and many other independent analysts slams RBI for this decision. Let us see who will get benefitted?
1. Inspite of rate cut banks are reluctant to pass on the benefits. That means the 50 bps will not be translated
into your loan EMI. We need to wait and watch.
2. It helps markets for a short time for sentiment booster.
3. It helps RE guys to try and sell their unsold inventory saying that the interest rate is gonna to reduce from
here.
4. RE guys and other corporates who are heavily indepted to banks are not going to benefit hugely by 50 bps even when the banks decided to pass on to them,
our CPI is well above 8%. Food inflation which was subdued during January due to base effect and seasonal effect rising its ugly face again. Rupee raises to 51.50 effortlessly. Congress losing in Delhi is a grim remainder that they cannot afford to take bold decisions.
By exhausting their arsenal, RBI cannot afford to cut the rates atleast for another 6 months minimum.
Interesting days ahead.
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Budget Comedy
Having burnt my fingers in start of the year rally I stopped trading for few days until the budget. I wanted to see how this will shape up.I may be a bear. The reasons are
1. Equity bear because companies are not doing that great, Inflation is up etc
2. Property bear because of seeing filthy rich money RE players are making
From this budget I tried to see the positive sides and was trying to become bull. I tried hard. But it is of no use. I see huge negatives from this budget and I fear Indian Economy will go bust.
1. Income tax benefit for tax payers is restricted to 2000 only. The handful of population who does not vote will get the 20000 additional benefit. But again there is a catch. The 20000 tax free infra bond option is gone.no other be benefits.
2. Pranab is trying to change rules on IT due to Vodafone-Hutch ruling. The people who shouted from roof top about the SC ruling is not at all murmuring anything now.
3. Service tax increased to 2% and excise duty increased to 2%. This added huge burden to both aam aadmi as well as affordable. Car prices set to go up.
4. Now Govt will look to increase diesel and petrol and mark my words. It will affect us hugely.
5. Inflation is not gonna to come down as expected. RBI's view will get interesting in the coming months.
Because of the above factors, people may not have disposable income in their hands to spend. Govt expectation of consumer driven economy theory may not work at all.
If not for Obama's election thing, markets would have gone to ditch. Let us wait and watch. Tamasha becomes more interesting now.
1. Equity bear because companies are not doing that great, Inflation is up etc
2. Property bear because of seeing filthy rich money RE players are making
From this budget I tried to see the positive sides and was trying to become bull. I tried hard. But it is of no use. I see huge negatives from this budget and I fear Indian Economy will go bust.
1. Income tax benefit for tax payers is restricted to 2000 only. The handful of population who does not vote will get the 20000 additional benefit. But again there is a catch. The 20000 tax free infra bond option is gone.no other be benefits.
2. Pranab is trying to change rules on IT due to Vodafone-Hutch ruling. The people who shouted from roof top about the SC ruling is not at all murmuring anything now.
3. Service tax increased to 2% and excise duty increased to 2%. This added huge burden to both aam aadmi as well as affordable. Car prices set to go up.
4. Now Govt will look to increase diesel and petrol and mark my words. It will affect us hugely.
5. Inflation is not gonna to come down as expected. RBI's view will get interesting in the coming months.
Because of the above factors, people may not have disposable income in their hands to spend. Govt expectation of consumer driven economy theory may not work at all.
If not for Obama's election thing, markets would have gone to ditch. Let us wait and watch. Tamasha becomes more interesting now.
Friday, March 2, 2012
ONGC share sale bombed
Government has not learnt its lessons.
Indian government foolishly thinking that the share markets are rising due to improvement in indian economic climate. But the truth is that the global liquidity push is driving Indian markets and this is not going to last. One news item in Times of India says that the government officials advises corporate to lobby for a RBI rate cut.
Instead of going to control the fiscal deficit and reign in regulatory mode, government is thinking everything will be set right automatically. That is not going to happen. Next tamasha will start after the budget.
Indian government foolishly thinking that the share markets are rising due to improvement in indian economic climate. But the truth is that the global liquidity push is driving Indian markets and this is not going to last. One news item in Times of India says that the government officials advises corporate to lobby for a RBI rate cut.
Instead of going to control the fiscal deficit and reign in regulatory mode, government is thinking everything will be set right automatically. That is not going to happen. Next tamasha will start after the budget.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Desperate times needs desperate measures
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/news-/builders-find-ways-to-stay-afloat-hold-on-to-property-rates/articleshow/11680915.cms
Read the above link. The RE mafia is luring cash rich investors and thus staying afloat weathering the slump in the sales. Behind the lines, we need to understand that they are expecting end users (like you and me) to blink first and fall into their trap. They are holding steady and slightly having upper hand at this moment. The forces working in their favour are
1. Indian Government and their corrupt politicians
2. RBI ( It is trapped into it unknowingly or knowingly)
3. People who already invested in RE ( They are sentiment creators)
4. Share Market ( Sentiment Creator)
But even the mighty federal reserve could not stop the slump in their real estate. We need to wait and watch when the law of natural correction sets in. So far the indications are negative. The indications in our favour is
1. Food Inflation which nosedives showing signs of going up ( ask the vegetable vendor)
2. Many banks started showing negative returns this quarter ( read financial results)
3. Equity markets are at resistance zone
4. News flow from Europe dried down
5. Indian fiscal deficit is at record heights and babus cannot look other side. This budget would be a great disappointment.
Crash is near. Hold on . sit tight.
Read the above link. The RE mafia is luring cash rich investors and thus staying afloat weathering the slump in the sales. Behind the lines, we need to understand that they are expecting end users (like you and me) to blink first and fall into their trap. They are holding steady and slightly having upper hand at this moment. The forces working in their favour are
1. Indian Government and their corrupt politicians
2. RBI ( It is trapped into it unknowingly or knowingly)
3. People who already invested in RE ( They are sentiment creators)
4. Share Market ( Sentiment Creator)
But even the mighty federal reserve could not stop the slump in their real estate. We need to wait and watch when the law of natural correction sets in. So far the indications are negative. The indications in our favour is
1. Food Inflation which nosedives showing signs of going up ( ask the vegetable vendor)
2. Many banks started showing negative returns this quarter ( read financial results)
3. Equity markets are at resistance zone
4. News flow from Europe dried down
5. Indian fiscal deficit is at record heights and babus cannot look other side. This budget would be a great disappointment.
Crash is near. Hold on . sit tight.
Sunday, January 8, 2012
Can he resist the pressure and temptation?
I am referring to Mr.Subbarao who handsomely withstood pressure last month.When we talk about interest rate cuts, the first salvo you are facing is that 'everybody expects rate cut'. Why everybody expects rate cut and still RBI may not doing that? Let me think on your behalf :)
1. Food Inflation figures what we saw is a mirage. Our diet is not only the Onion and Potato. We consume much more than that for example protein diet and milk which is not coming down and in fact it is going up.
.
a) This food inflation is just a part of over all inflation. Over all inflation is still high and not showing signs of cool off.
b) This vegetable prices also seasonal. next month it may shoot up. So cutting rates based on these figures would be foolish to be frank.
c) Expectation of further rise in fuel price is going to affect Inflation again.
2. When we say 'everybody expects rate cut means who are we referring? Real Estate developers, Real Estate Investors and Stock Market Investors..sadly these people are less than 5% of our population.
3. A rate cut now will again feed for the bubble on one hand in RE sector whereas, I am 300% sure, that this is not going to help the Industrial output because our industrial problems are not due to rate cuts. See the export and import data to figure out why?
You know what. RBI knew all this. But whether they can withstand the pressure from Industry lobby and Politicians? Time only will tell.
1. Food Inflation figures what we saw is a mirage. Our diet is not only the Onion and Potato. We consume much more than that for example protein diet and milk which is not coming down and in fact it is going up.
.
a) This food inflation is just a part of over all inflation. Over all inflation is still high and not showing signs of cool off.
b) This vegetable prices also seasonal. next month it may shoot up. So cutting rates based on these figures would be foolish to be frank.
c) Expectation of further rise in fuel price is going to affect Inflation again.
2. When we say 'everybody expects rate cut means who are we referring? Real Estate developers, Real Estate Investors and Stock Market Investors..sadly these people are less than 5% of our population.
3. A rate cut now will again feed for the bubble on one hand in RE sector whereas, I am 300% sure, that this is not going to help the Industrial output because our industrial problems are not due to rate cuts. See the export and import data to figure out why?
You know what. RBI knew all this. But whether they can withstand the pressure from Industry lobby and Politicians? Time only will tell.
Weekly Analysis of Nifty - Infy and IIP
The week gone by shows how the cartel of stock markets operate in tandem to loot from retail investors world over. All markets moved in tandem without any major fall inspite of euro weakness.
Inspite of Euro collapsing well below 1.30 up to 1.1.2697 equity markets hold fort. Dollar index crosses 81.5 comfortably but Rupee appreciates below 53 levels. In short term this kind of manipulation works but over the period of time these things cannot be sustained. But can we stay short until market returns to sanity?
Two important news items expected this week. IIP data and Infosys results. IIP data is expected to be positive after a dismal -ve data last time. Also due to Rupee weakness Infy is expected to post a spectacular results. so on paper the setup looks great for a rally. Market players are expecting a rally up to 4900 at least.
Also the market manipulators keep up their pressure on RBI to cut the interest rates.
FII data mostly points towards upsides. There are conspiracy theories about FII derivative data. From the start of the series they are long in 56000 contracts with 1700 Crores OI addition. But they net bought only less than 50 Crores. How to intrepret this? I will try my best and come with a analysis soon.
No new shorts. Wait for 4675 and below or 4850 and above for new shorts. I am still hoping for a crash in January end or February due to europe issues. The governments are struggling to find buyers for bonds which is evident from the news emanating from euro zone. Euro value is tripping. If they struggle to sell 10 Billion euro bonds how come they are going to sell 200 Billion bonds? Let us wait and see. No wrong if you are not in short but a strict no no to longs.
Inspite of Euro collapsing well below 1.30 up to 1.1.2697 equity markets hold fort. Dollar index crosses 81.5 comfortably but Rupee appreciates below 53 levels. In short term this kind of manipulation works but over the period of time these things cannot be sustained. But can we stay short until market returns to sanity?
Two important news items expected this week. IIP data and Infosys results. IIP data is expected to be positive after a dismal -ve data last time. Also due to Rupee weakness Infy is expected to post a spectacular results. so on paper the setup looks great for a rally. Market players are expecting a rally up to 4900 at least.
Also the market manipulators keep up their pressure on RBI to cut the interest rates.
FII data mostly points towards upsides. There are conspiracy theories about FII derivative data. From the start of the series they are long in 56000 contracts with 1700 Crores OI addition. But they net bought only less than 50 Crores. How to intrepret this? I will try my best and come with a analysis soon.
No new shorts. Wait for 4675 and below or 4850 and above for new shorts. I am still hoping for a crash in January end or February due to europe issues. The governments are struggling to find buyers for bonds which is evident from the news emanating from euro zone. Euro value is tripping. If they struggle to sell 10 Billion euro bonds how come they are going to sell 200 Billion bonds? Let us wait and see. No wrong if you are not in short but a strict no no to longs.
Friday, January 6, 2012
Something about my favourite punching bag - 5
Concerns also escalated about Spanish banks after Spain’s economy minister told the Financial Times that they will have to set aside as much as 50 billion euros ($65 billion), which amounts to 4% of Spain’s gross domestic product, in extra provisions on bad property assets.
Bad property assets???? Remember spain had housing bubble until last year just like what we have now ....
Bad property assets???? Remember spain had housing bubble until last year just like what we have now ....
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Sucker Jokes by market Mafia - Car Sales
All along I have been maintaining that market manipulators spread false news which will affect unsuspecting investors. One such example I can show you from yesterday.
Yesterday Bajaj Auto declared sales figure for Month of December. For a person who wanted to show this as a good news he can easily show by putting a headlines that screams "Bajaj Auto Sales in December rises 10%." When you read into the article you would find that the 10% increase is as compared with December 2010. But what actually happened?
Compared with November there was a fall of 27% sales in Bajaj Vehicles. Now think.
Addition:
Please compare the total car sales for maruti and hyundai for November and December ( December is supposed to be boom period for car sales with discount). I have observed there is a fall in sales between november and december.
January would be further worse. :)
Yesterday Bajaj Auto declared sales figure for Month of December. For a person who wanted to show this as a good news he can easily show by putting a headlines that screams "Bajaj Auto Sales in December rises 10%." When you read into the article you would find that the 10% increase is as compared with December 2010. But what actually happened?
Compared with November there was a fall of 27% sales in Bajaj Vehicles. Now think.
Addition:
Please compare the total car sales for maruti and hyundai for November and December ( December is supposed to be boom period for car sales with discount). I have observed there is a fall in sales between november and december.
January would be further worse. :)
Slowdown?? what slowdown??
When you try to caution your near and dear ones about the imminent slow down in Indian Economy they would stare you as if you are an unwanted insect.
At best we can give some clues and we cannot force feed anybody. I am trying my best because these kind of slow down would really hurt you. For example, consider one who buys an Apartment / Plot at this exorbitant price and surely we are going to see at least 30% correction. Assuming the price is 40 Lakh today, easily we can see a loss of 10-12 Lakh within 12-24 months. That is nothing but a loss.
Until last month (Even in Dec) we see fall in sales of 4 wheeler manufacturers. Don't be fooled by the biased reporting from some of the newspapers. See the sales report of Maruti and Hyundai who sell many more vehicles compared with other small players. Small players sell far less vehicles which cannot be compared. At that time many thought 2 wheeler segment is not affected. Alas, Yesterday we see that Bajaj Auto tanked 9% because of slow growth in sales. TVS Motors also slowing down. So this shows clearly slowdown is started.
Go to any small town in India as ask for RE activities. People say that all stopped. At least in Tamilnadu I have confirmed this myself and there is no activity of RE whatsoever. People who bought recently could not come to terms with this and are still maintaining it is nothing. But for the people who expects and waiting for correction this means a LOT.
The Real Estate Bubble has sucked the liquidity from many and now the second stage of Real Estate Crash
or to put it mildly Real Estate Correction is going to happen. If you are a so-called investor in real estate better sell whatever you have at some reasonable rate quoting now and get out or tighten your seat belts.
Mr.Singh has indicated the priority is to set right govt fiscal deficit. So freebies for Real Estate sharks is out of question. Moreover govt itself is begging now in the streets because of its mismanagement.
btw, do you know Indian Gold Imports falls 56% this quater? News to Think Guys
At best we can give some clues and we cannot force feed anybody. I am trying my best because these kind of slow down would really hurt you. For example, consider one who buys an Apartment / Plot at this exorbitant price and surely we are going to see at least 30% correction. Assuming the price is 40 Lakh today, easily we can see a loss of 10-12 Lakh within 12-24 months. That is nothing but a loss.
Until last month (Even in Dec) we see fall in sales of 4 wheeler manufacturers. Don't be fooled by the biased reporting from some of the newspapers. See the sales report of Maruti and Hyundai who sell many more vehicles compared with other small players. Small players sell far less vehicles which cannot be compared. At that time many thought 2 wheeler segment is not affected. Alas, Yesterday we see that Bajaj Auto tanked 9% because of slow growth in sales. TVS Motors also slowing down. So this shows clearly slowdown is started.
Go to any small town in India as ask for RE activities. People say that all stopped. At least in Tamilnadu I have confirmed this myself and there is no activity of RE whatsoever. People who bought recently could not come to terms with this and are still maintaining it is nothing. But for the people who expects and waiting for correction this means a LOT.
The Real Estate Bubble has sucked the liquidity from many and now the second stage of Real Estate Crash
or to put it mildly Real Estate Correction is going to happen. If you are a so-called investor in real estate better sell whatever you have at some reasonable rate quoting now and get out or tighten your seat belts.
Mr.Singh has indicated the priority is to set right govt fiscal deficit. So freebies for Real Estate sharks is out of question. Moreover govt itself is begging now in the streets because of its mismanagement.
btw, do you know Indian Gold Imports falls 56% this quater? News to Think Guys
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